Wednesday, June 07, 2006

My NAIRU, Right or Wrong… (Prelude)

I think that Keynesian economics can do better than the NAIRU theory, but I also think that, in order to move forward, we need to be able to explain the value of the existing theory. Although I’ve maligned it in the past, today my duty as a Keynesian calls me to defend the NAIRU. Well, maybe I’m not the best soldier, but…how do you load this damn thing, anyway? (We have a lot of friendly fire casualties; it may not always be clear which side I’m on.)

So far we have only a couple of minor battles:

The first battle

The second battle
(Read and then click on "Comments")

Also, an earlier skirmish – with a different, better trained but less focused, rebel contingent, previously observed preparing for battle

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Blogger spencerengland said...

My personal experience is that if you add in an inflation expectations component -- a lagged function of past inflation -- the NAIRU works fine without any need for adjustments.

Thu Jun 08, 05:05:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

spencerengland, Are you saying that we can still work with the old constant NAIRU of the type that Robert Gordon used to estimate (before he gave up on it and started estimating a time-varying NAIRU)? Or do you have something else in mind? I was actually surprised yesterday when I fitted a Phillips curve in a split sample and found the NAIRU estimate to be fairly close in the two halves. But it just seems intuitively implausible that the NAIRU in the late 90s (or today) is as high as it was during the 80s. (Both were in the second half of my sample, so it kind of begs the question.)

Fri Jun 09, 03:50:00 AM EDT  
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