How many people have lost their jobs?
According to Barack Obama, 600 thousand Americans have lost their jobs since January. Actually, he's wrong: something like 20 million Americans have lost their jobs since January. It's just that most of them found new jobs. Probably the new jobs generally weren't as good as the ones they lost. And almost certainly, more than 600 thousand of them were unable to find new jobs, because many of the new jobs created were filled by new entrants to the labor force or by people who were already unemployed when the year began.
Like almost everyone else I've ever heard, Senator Obama is making the mistake of using a net job loss figure with language that, if taken in its plain sense, clearly implies he is talking about gross job loss. And it seems to me that gross job loss is the appropriate concept: losing your job is a pretty serious bummer, even if you are able to find a new one after a few months.
There has been a lot of talk about Senator McCain and how he has been saying things that aren't true in order benefit himself politically. It turns out that Senator Obama is also (obviously unintentionally) saying things that aren't true, but in this case they benefit his opponent.
Like almost everyone else I've ever heard, Senator Obama is making the mistake of using a net job loss figure with language that, if taken in its plain sense, clearly implies he is talking about gross job loss. And it seems to me that gross job loss is the appropriate concept: losing your job is a pretty serious bummer, even if you are able to find a new one after a few months.
There has been a lot of talk about Senator McCain and how he has been saying things that aren't true in order benefit himself politically. It turns out that Senator Obama is also (obviously unintentionally) saying things that aren't true, but in this case they benefit his opponent.
Labels: economics, jobs, labor, macroeconomics, politics, unemployment


19 Comments:
Economic Snapshots
Snapshot for September 17, 2008.
Got work?
by Heidi Shierholz
In July, there were 8.8 million unemployed workers actively seeking jobs in the United States, but only 3.4 million job openings, according to data released last week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other words, there were an average of 2.6 job seekers for every available job—an increase of over 60% from the low point in the 2000s expansion a year and a half ago, when there were just 1.6 job seekers for every job opening (see chart).1 There are now 5.4 million more job seekers than job openings in this country, meaning that millions of dedicated, productive American workers are experiencing the hardship and insecurity of unemployment with little hope of finding a job. The job openings data represent one more strong indicator of the need for a second stimulus package that is targeted directly at job creation.
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Has anyone ever looked at what the definition of "employment" is? I didn't know how grim it was until an economist told me.
Most people think employment is someone who has a full time job and works at least 40 hours a week... way off!
In the US the unemployment statistic is someone who has actively looked for work in the last 4 weeks:
How Govt measures Unemployment
In Australia, you're classified as employed if you've worked at an hour in the previous week.
Unemployment in Australia
Are those 20m job separations or layoffs? Presumably at least some people who quit their old jobs are happier in their new ones.
20 million is my "ball park figure" for layoffs based on extrapolating the "gross job losses" figure from the Business Employment Dynamics data. None of the data for 2008 have been released yet, but gross job losses in 2007 were running at about 7400 per quarter. On the premise that the rate in 2008 was higher, I used 8000 as a round figure and multiplied by 3 (although the 3rd quarter isn't quite over). That gives 24,000. Then I rounded down to 20,000, figuring that maybe 4,000 of the job losses weren't actually layoffs. (A job loss could be someone quitting without being replaced.) Now that I'm looking at the definitions from CES, it's also possible my figure is too low, because if someone is laid off from one position while someone else is hired for a different position in the same establishment, it looks like that would not count as a job loss.
"20 million is my "ball park figure" for layoffs"
You are failing to net out baseline turnover - which would exist even in a "good" employment year.
Using your metric, even the best year of the 90's would likely show gross job losses in the high millions.
That is because you are measuring *separations* - which occur in the millions even in the best of times.
I think the underlying point about underemployment is very valid but the 20 million figure is extremely inaccurate/deceptive.
I'm not measuring "separations"; I'm measuring "gross job losses" (extrapolating the figure of that name from the BED data). As best I can determine, they take the change in employment at each establishment and add them up. The only issue is what proportion of quitters are replaced within the quarter. I'm assuming that most of them are. But I rounded down as a rough guess to account for those that aren't replaced.
I'll repeat my main point:
You are failing to net out baseline turnover - which would exist even in a "good" employment year.
Using your metric, even the best year of the 90's would likely show gross job losses in the high millions.
I'm not sure what you mean by
"baseline turnover." If you're talking about people who quit one job and go to another one, then you're criticism is only valid to the extent that replacing quitters takes longer than to the end of the quarter (or that quitters are not replaced at all). If someone quits and then is replaced within the quarter, the statistic will show no job loss, because the head count for that establishment at the end of the quarter will be the same as the head count at the beginning of the quarter. Your criticism would clearly apply if I were measuring "separations," but I'm not.
If by "baseline turnover" you mean people who are laid off from one job and then find another one, then of course I don't take that into account: that's my whole point. These people have "lost their jobs," most of them have experienced at least a short spell of unemployment, and they should be counted in the number of people who have lost their jobs.
It's true that my figure would show a lot of job losses during the 90s, because there were in fact a lot of job losses during the 90s. I imagine that, in certain industries and occupations, and in certain parts of the country, jobs loss was a serious problem even then. The major difference is that the job market as a whole was strong, so it was easier for most people to find a new job (and a reasonably good one) than it is today. (I think the extent of the contrast has been exaggerated, though. Even in the 90s, losing your job was bad news.)
So in the 1990s, although job loss was high, it usually wasn't such a big deal. Maybe say 15 million people lost their jobs in 9 months, but it wasn't painful enough to be an issue. Today, losing your job is very bad news, because finding a new one is a major struggle, and because the likelihood of finding a new one as good as the old one is low in most cases.
I stand behind my point that around 20 million people have lost their jobs. We don't really know how painful the job losses were. We know that most of them found new jobs, but we don't know how difficult it was or how good the new jobs were compared to the old ones. We do know that average unemployment duration has been longer than usual, so that's one indicator that a large fraction of these job losses were difficult for the people who experienced them.
I'll grant you that gross job losses by itself may not be the best statistic to describe the state of the job market, but neither is net job losses. I would want to know both numbers, among numerous others.
knzn,
Your estimate of 20 million for gross job losses is too low, by at least a factor of 2. Using the CPS, I calculate that 46.9 million workers left employment in 2008.
A detailed analysis is here:
http://chrisnekarda.com/2008/09/gross-flows-on-the-campaign-trail/
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希望大家都會非常非常幸福~
「朵朵小語‧優美的眷戀在這個世界上,最重要的一件事,就是好好愛自己。好好愛自己,你的眼睛才能看見天空的美麗,耳朵才能聽見山水的清音。好好愛自己,你才能體會所有美好的東西,所有的文字與音符才能像清泉一樣注入你的心靈。好好愛自己,你才有愛人的能力,也才有讓別人愛上你的魅力。而愛自己的第一步,就是切斷讓自己覺得黏膩的過去,以無沾無滯的輕快心情,大步走向前去。愛自己的第二步,則是隨時保持孩子般的好奇,願意接受未知的指引;也隨時可以拋卻不再需要的行囊,一路雲淡風輕。親愛的,你是天地之間獨一無二的旅人,在陽光與月光的交替之中瀟灑獨行.............................................................................................................
有時,你覺得痛。胃痛的時候,接受它,承認這個疼痛是你的身體的一部份,與它和平共處。心痛的時候,接受它,承認這個經驗是你的生命的一部份,與它和平共處。抗拒痛的存在,只會讓它更要證明它的存在,於是你就更痛。所以,.無論你有多麼不喜歡痛的感覺,還是要接納這個痛的事實。與你的痛站在同一邊,不逃避,不閃躲,不再與你的痛爭執,如此,你的痛才會漸漸不再胡鬧,才會乖乖平息下去。.................
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