Monday, September 15, 2008

Third Rant of the Day

When it rains, it pours. This one is really sort of a repeat of my first rant, but with more explanation and less sarcasm. Well, more explanation, anyhow.

Here’s Treasury Secretary Paulson at a press briefing this afternoon:
I never once considered that it was appropriate to put taxpayer money on the line in resolving Lehman Brothers.
When I first read this, I interpreted it to mean, “I never once considered the possibility that it was appropriate...,” and I was ready to write a somewhat more obnoxious rant about how Paulson was either a liar or irresponsible, and I hoped he was a liar. But a more careful parsing reveals that he is neither lying nor being irresponsible; he is just engaging in doubletalk. I don’t fault him for that, since it’s pretty much part of the treasury secretary’s job description. He never considered it to be the case that it was appropriate to put taxpayer money on the line.

Secretary Paulson is drawing his macho line in the sand and saying, “See, Mr. and Mrs. Average American, who faithfully pay your taxes, I’m protecting your money from the whining Wall Street plutocrats. So never think that just because I came from Wall Street, I will put Wall Street’s interests above those of Main Street. And never say that Republicans always help the rich.”

Which is fine if you believe that financial events have no impact on the nonfinancial economy. But most economists (and, I would guess, Secretary Paulson himself) don’t believe that. Let me assert – and see whether I get broad disagreement – that the failure of the 4th largest investment bank in the country can be expected to increase significantly the risks faced by participants in the nonfinancial economy. In particular, when the financial system is strained and interest rates on Treasury securities are already quite low, there is an increased risk that a weak economy will turn into a serious recession which the Fed will have little power to combat. If you depend on your job to earn a living, that’s a pretty serious risk.

So instead of putting “taxpayer money” on the line, Secretary Paulson is putting taxpayers on the line.

But then there is also the question of whether even “taxpayer money” is really less on the line than it would be if the Treasury had provided loan guarantees. I’ve addressed this question before in connection with the Fed’s Term Securities Lending Facility. Each individual taxpayer who benefits from public services depends on the taxes collected from all the other taxpayers to help pay for those services. If the other taxpayers start losing their jobs, tax receipts will go down, and this taxpayer will eventually have to pay more taxes, or give up more public services, to make up for that loss. If you risk the potential economic effects of a major investment bank failure, you are risking that taxpayers will have to pay higher taxes. That’s just the same as if you had provided loan guarantees, which risk that the loans will go sour and require an increase in taxes to make up the difference. In which case is the risk bigger? Not obvious to me, but if I had to guess, I would say that the investment bank failure risks taxpayer money more than would the loan guarantees. So I would say that Secretary Paulson’s stance on “taxpayer money” is either politically disingenuous or economically naïve.

Let’s consider the possibility that it is politically disingenuous and that his motivation is actually something different than protecting taxpayer money. I’m not suggesting anything sinister; I’m just suggesting that there is a (slightly) more reasonable, but harder to explain, argument for avoiding a bailout. As Secretary Paulson says elsewhere in the briefing:
Moral hazard is something I don't take lightly.
Rather than trying to define moral hazard, I’ll go with the definition used by the AP in the report about the briefing: “the belief that when the government steps in to rescue a private financial firm it encourages other firms to engage in risky behavior.”

But does it? When the government steps in to rescue a firm by facilitating its sale at a small fraction of the price that it fetched a year or two ago, does that really encourage other firms to engage in risky behavior? It’s kind of like when your health insurer requires only a $950 co-payment for a $1000 procedure. Does that give you an incentive to make excessive use of the health care system? If I were a financial firm contemplating engaging in risky behavior, I wouldn’t find the prospect of a fire-sale rescue to be very encouraging.

It’s really not the firm that would be bailed out, but the firm’s creditors. Were the creditors engaging in risky behavior that needs to be discouraged? There isn’t much I can say about that that I didn’t already say this morning. In general, I think that doing business with major investment banks is something that we should encourage. A financial system doesn’t work very well when everyone is afraid to do business with everyone else. Should counterparties really be expected to do extensive due diligence on the 4th largest investment bank in the country before they engage in credit swaps with it? It seems to me that would not be a very efficient use of resources. And in any case, it’s not clear that even extensive due diligence would have uncovered the depth of Lehman’s problems.

End of rant. Executive summary: They should have bailed out Lehman.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

If LEH had gotten the lifeline, then the MER deal wouldn't have been done, so they would have needed a bailout. Followed in short order by WM, AIG, WB, GM, F.

When does it end, when we have a Soviet-style command and control economy and 5-year plans?

Mon Sep 15, 10:37:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Bunbury said...

Or Dick Fuld could have dropped his price to KDB?

Or if BSC had been allowed to collapse Lehman might have done something sooner.

Rescuing Bear but not Lehman doesn't make obvious sense but the Fed has already rescued Bear, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and extended a lot of help to everyone else. Plus the help would probably have gone to a non US bank which would cause trouble.

You're also rather vague about people being afraid to do business with the fourth largest investment bank. What sort of trust and what sort of business?

Investment banks have never been thought particularly credit worthy and have repeatedly had to be bailed out. Many great names of the past have vanished -- Salamon, Kidder Peabody, First Boston, not to mention Lehman's own merger with Shearson. There have been loads of them but only two survive and even Goldman as the strongest has a less than glorious history including an eponymous Ponzi scheme and had to be bailed out by Sumitomo Bank within working memory. Why do you think they have such shiny offices?

As recently as 10 years ago they were not viable counterparties for major derivative transactions and had much higher funding costs than proper banks.

My point is that the investment banks were essentially intermediaries and never had to rely on being good bets. There is little in Lehman's past to suggest that due diligence should have been unnecessary.

The problem is surely that they have done too much business and that really can't be fixed by one way traffic from the Fed.

Tue Sep 16, 08:30:00 AM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

Let me point out, though, that in most of your examples of investment bank failures, the creditors came out whole. They weren't so much failures as liquidity problems that had to be solved by selling off the company on the cheap.

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