Thursday, July 31, 2008

GDP Report is Good News; Deflator Critics are Wrong

Some people (mentioned here, for example) are denigrating the GDP report, which appears to show a 1.9% rate of real growth, on the grounds that the deflator – used to convert from nominal GDP to real GDP – is artificially low because it doesn’t include imports (which have become more expensive, due primarily to changes in the price of one dark, viscous liquid that is included in their number). As far as I can tell, these people are confusing production with terms of trade. It’s true that the “average American” is worse off when the terms of trade deteriorate, but that isn’t what GDP is supposed to measure. And frankly, it’s not what I, as a macroeconomist, care about.

If it’s a really big deal to you that people who have jobs can’t (on average) buy quite as much with their paychecks as they could 3 months ago, then go ahead and criticize the GDP report (but be careful how you phrase your criticism). Personally, I care a lot more about the people that don’t have jobs, or potentially won’t have jobs in the future. The biggest reason that I care about the GDP report is that more production means more demand for labor. (I’m speaking in relative terms, of course. In absolute terms, a 1.9% growth rate is probably not enough even to keep employment stable, let alone absorb normal labor force growth – but this has nothing to do with the deflator.) Production increased by 1.9% in the second quarter. As far as the implication for labor demand, it doesn’t make a damn bit of difference what you could or couldn’t buy with that extra production.

The second big reason I care about the GDP report is what it suggests about trends in productivity. What happens in one particular quarter isn’t, in itself, of great consequence, but it does tend to make us revise our estimates of what will happen in the future. If productivity is growing quickly in the present, then we can be more confident about its future growth. I haven’t tried to do the calculations, but since employment fell significantly in the second quarter, productivity must have risen by considerably more than 1.9%, and that sounds like good news to me.

Again, the terms of trade are irrelevant, unless you think you can extrapolate changes in the terms of trade the same way we extrapolate productivity. Does the fact that oil prices rose quickly in the second quarter make you think they will rise more quickly in the future? Maybe according to some theories, but my theory is based on the observation that oil demand is much more elastic in the long run than in the short run. If prices rise in the short run, while demand is elastic in the long run, that means future demand is likely to decline and push prices down rather than up. Obviously that’s a limited view and an oversimplification, but you’re going to have to do some pretty fancy theoretical gymnastics to get the result that rates of oil price growth are persistent over long periods of time.

I think the 1.9% growth number is the right number to look at, and it’s better than I expected. Apparently, it is not quite as good as the consensus expected (2.3%, according to Briefing.com, as reported by Yahoo.)

But the other number you might want to look at is inventory investment, which (as James Hamilton points out in the article I linked in the first paragraph) was severely negative in the second quarter. Inventory investment is not something that can be extrapolated. If anything, it is more likely to correct after an unusual move because the move was often the result of a mismatch between planned production and actual sales. (For example, in the second quarter, the drop in inventories may have been the result of having better than expected sales, which would lead us to expect positive inventory investment in the third quarter.) Once you account for declining inventories, growth of final sales was probably enough to imply a positive growth trend for employment, once all the inventory and cyclical labor usage issues wash out. That sounds like good news to me.

127 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

It’s true that the “average American” is worse off... And frankly, it’s not what I, as a macroeconomist, care about.

Nice to see someone admit it.

bob mcmanus

Thu Jul 31, 10:44:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Matt Nolan said...

Very nice description of the data!

Fri Aug 01, 12:31:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Matt Nolan said...

"Nice to see someone admit it."

As a welfare economist he cares about the welfare expectations.

As a macro-economist he cares about the outlook for aggregate statistics such as GDP and unemployment.

Splitting it in this way allows him to split the positivist and normative elements of his job as an economist - this is an excellent thing to do as it makes his statements more transparent.

Hopefully that is what you mean by "nice to see someone admit it".

Fri Aug 01, 12:35:00 AM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

I should note, though, that I am making a normative statement when I say that differences in the real income of the average American from quarter to quarter are not what I care about. The difference in having to buy a cheaper TV set in order to save money for gas, or having to take a vacation closer to home, is pretty insignificant compared to the difference between having a job and not having one. I care about productivity because these relatively small differences in income add up over time and become very large. But a one-time terms of trade shock, while it may be mildly unpleasant, is really no big deal.

Fri Aug 01, 08:57:00 AM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

(clarifying my previous comment) A one-time terms of trade shock is no big deal except to the extent that it impacts unemployment or productivity. (I wonder if one-time shocks can impact productivity in the long run, but from looking at the 70s, it seems maybe they can.) So I'm saying, once you look at real growth, you already know the important stuff about the effects of the terms of trade shock. There's no need to further adjust for the direct effect of terms of trade on real income (unless you think that fancy TV set or far away vacation is really important).

Fri Aug 01, 09:03:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous S said...

description of the data is wanting. Deflator is sequentially down from 2.6%? How exactly does that compute? Notwithstanding the esoteric debate about productivity and jobs, which itself is a manufactured number via the B/D adjustment. That said, 1.9% got us approx 448 last week and climbing on claims. So the notion that printing money and thwing it at consumers hoping to keep the velcoity of money psotive is a J O K E. Consumptrion like everything else in this country is overextended. Dismissing the deflator is the most absurd thing I have read. Where did you get your PHD?

Sun Aug 03, 10:27:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

The deflator is down because the weak economy, and the need to spend more on imports, has reduced the demand for US products and prevented sellers from raising prices. (Ever heard of a demand curve?) That's how exactly it computes.

If the birth/death adjustment is becoming progressively too large, then productivity growth was even higher, since total hours worked (which derives from employment) is in the denominator of productivity.

As I said, 1.9% growth is probably not enough to maintain employment, but it's still more than I expected. With employment falling, it's not surprising to see initial unemployment claims rising, but my point is that the situation would be even worse if GDP were growing more slowly, as some deflator critics contend is true. (Also note that there is a temporary spike in initial claims due to the impact of the federal extended benefits program, which has made more people aware of their eligibility for state benefits.)

Sun Aug 03, 11:32:00 PM EDT  
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更新日期:2009/08/25 17:19

(中央社訊息服務20090825 16:19:17)大環境不景氣,工作難找,有不少人就想乾脆自己創業當老闆。為

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