Monday, October 29, 2007

125 Basis Points

Is it time for another Fed meeting already? How time flies when you’re watching CDO tranches get downgraded from top quality to junk!

I just want to point out that the Taylor rule is still calling for a federal funds rate of 3.5%, and there are 125 basis points left to get there, so by this measure, the FOMC’s job has barely begun. Since the last meeting, the (12-month market-based core PCE) inflation rate has fallen (from 1.7% to 1.6%, rounded) and the unemployment rate has risen (from 4.6% to 4.7%, rounded, but mostly due to rounding), so if anything, the target would be even lower. But with quarter-point rounding in the funds rate target, the combined effect of these changes is not enough to change the result.

As to what the FOMC will actually do this week, I’ll go with the consensus of 25 basis points. As Mark Shivers suggests, there are persuasive arguments to be made for either 0 or 50, and the arguments are sufficiently persuasive that neither of these options can be chosen, because either one would imply a strong rejection of the other. Although the financial crisis has clearly diminished, it may not have diminished as much or as quickly as the Fed had hoped, and part of the reason for its diminishing is the expectation of another rate cut. Depending on how you read the beige book, there either are or aren’t indications that the crisis is affecting the real economy, so the appropriate rate cut is either 50 basis points (to nip this trend in the bud) or 0. An individual might make the choice by flipping a coin, but a committee makes it by splitting the difference.

As for my serious opinion of what the FOMC should do, I think I would go with 50. A 75 basis point cut would risk too much financial market (and foreign exchange market) instability, but even a more conservative Taylor rule would call for at least 50. (Say, for example, we reduced the target inflation rate from 2% to 1.5% and increased the natural real federal funds rate from 2% to 2.5%. That would increase the target funds rate by 75 basis points, leaving 50 still to go. Personally, I’d rather stick with the original rule if we’re going to use Taylor rules at all, but I’m open to choosing a higher inflation reading than my 1.6%.) Some of the arguments I made in September no longer apply (e.g. the temporarily robust dollar, falling employment), but most of them still do, and the bottom line is that even 4.5% qualifies as a slightly restrictive policy, not appropriate when the core inflation rate is still low and 65% of Americans expect a recession (hat tip: Barry Ritholtz).

I could also point out that, while the financial crisis has diminished, the underlying housing problem has gotten worse (and by worse I mean worse relative to expectations). Here in eastern Massachusetts (home of the world champion Boston Red Sox!), where a year ago it was difficult to find anecdotal evidence to support the statistical finding that house prices were declining, it is now difficult to avoid the anecdotal evidence. At dinner Saturday evening, for example, the waitress told my wife about how she and her husband were planning to move but underwater on their mortgage and hoping the bank would accept a short sale. With the personal savings rate still near zero, declining house prices are likely to be a drag on consumer spending for quite a while, and the risk that the we could discover a nonlinearity in the response sometime soon – particularly with oil prices making new record highs and credit conditions fairly tight – is palpable. When and if we hit that nonlinearity, it will be too late to prevent a recession.

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89 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

What do you choose 2 for real funds rate? potential gdp is considered to be about 2.5 - 3. It was about 2 back in 1993, though.

Mon Oct 29, 07:55:00 PM EDT  
Blogger jan perlwitz said...

Does it really matter whether there will be a 0, 25, 50, 75, 100, or 125 basis points change in the Fed Funds target rate or the discount rate? I don't see any rational explanation how this could significantly influence the outcome whether the US-economy will go into a recession or not.

The Fed funds rate is the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight lending of excess reserves to meet their reserve requirements with the Fed. The reserves of all depository institution in USA amount to less than 45 billion US-dollars. The net borrowing of excess reserves between banks amount to usually less than 2 billion dollars daily. The Fed funds rate concerns a minuscule money pool compared to the size of the credit markets of trillions of US-dollars and the 13.8 trillion US-dollar US-economy.

I don't see what the causal relationship is supposed to be between the Fed Funds rate and future GDP-growths or inflation. It's like you assign the ability to control the whole US-economy to a single mutual fund with its market activity.

Tue Oct 30, 01:55:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Karl Smith said...

Fed slashs the funds, this causes the both the Prime rate and the Libor to fall.

Prime rate determines credit payments and Libor determines ARM payments. Easing those payments makes households less likely to default on their mortgages which cushions the housing fall and constributes to consumer spending.

Tue Oct 30, 02:11:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

I don't think of it as a causal relationship. The federal funds rate is the measure of Fed policy, not the direct instrument. The direct instrument is bank reserves. A change in bank reserves that is large enough to change the federal funds rate by 25 basis points is also large enough to have material effects, directly or indirectly, on a lot of other interest rates, as well as on bank lending.

Tue Oct 30, 05:24:00 PM EDT  
Blogger jan perlwitz said...

Karl,

that's what you say and, I suppose, what's taught in economy classes.

If the Fed Funds target rate determined interest rates in the markets you should see it in the observational data. Market interest rates should follow the changes in the Fed Funds rate. I don't think the data support that.

Here is a graph of some historical data:

http://mortgage-x.com/general/historical_rates.asp

From what I see in this graph, the prime rate lags the changes in the mortgage rates somewhat, not the other way around. For instance, the rates had been falling since summer 2006. Then they peaked again in summer 2007. In September they started to drop before the Fed funds rate was lowered by 50 basis points.

You also can see it in the weekly data since August 2007:

http://mortgage-x.com/x/ratesweekly.asp

The 1-year ARMs peaked in the week ending August 31. Then they were decreasing before September 18 already. After the Fed Funds target rate cut, they went up in October again. There isn't any visible effect of the Fed Funds target rate cut.

Here is another graph which is from HSH Associates Financial Publishers who ask the question, whether the Federal Funds rate affects the mortgage rates. Their answer is "No":

http://library.hsh.com/?row_id=90

They say, that mortgage "rates ignored most of the 17 increases in the Federal Funds rate, eventually rising with rising inflation. After holding firm for 14 months, the Fed cut rates in Sept 2007, but mortgage rates were already falling."

And that's my question. What would the causal relationship be through which the Fed Funds rate which targets a very small money pool (less than 45 billion US-dollars Federal reserves of which only excess reserves are lent between banks) would determine the interest rates in credit markets whose sizes are in the trillions US-dollars. This alleged causal relationship lacks plausibility. And it is not supported by the data. I rather would think the market interest rates are a function of general economic and market conditions. And the Fed only reacts to these conditions. When the general market interest rates go down due to an economic downturn or an oversupply of liquidity, the Fed will lower the Fed Fund target rate, too, and when the market interest rates go up the Fed will increase the Fed Funds rate, too.

I think the importance of the Fed decisions regarding the Fed Fund rate or the discount rate for future economic growths and inflation is way overrated in the believe system of the financial market players and elsewhere also.

Tue Oct 30, 05:26:00 PM EDT  
Blogger jan perlwitz said...

knzn,

Then I don't understand at all why you are arguing for a 50 basis point rate cut, if there isn't any causal relationship.

And what would the functional relationship be between the reserves of banks and the Fed Funds rate?

Here is the time series of total reserves. I don't see any dependence of the Fed Funds rate on the reserves. Reserves haven't changed much since the end of last century:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/TOTRESNS.txt

They have decreased since 2005 somewhat. They were a little bit lower in 2002, but they also were lower in 2000 when the Fed Funds rate was higher. I don't see any correlation between the Fed Funds rate and reserves.

Nowadays, reserves are required for checking accounts only, anyway. Besides that banks can lend freely ahead.

Tue Oct 30, 06:06:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

"Cutting the federal funds rate" is a shorthand way of saying "creating enough reserves to push down the federal funds rate", which also implies that other interest rates would go down. The movement in reserves does not have to be a large one. Specifically because most accounts don't require reserves, there is a large money multiplier. E.g., a mild increase in reserves -> a substantial increase in checkable deposits -> a large increase in eurodollars (using US checkable deposits as reserves, with the reserve ratio at the discretion of the banks and presumably quite small).

Wed Oct 31, 08:13:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Karl Smith said...

If the Fed Funds target rate determined interest rates in the markets you should see it in the observational data.

Causation in this case can be difficult to work out. Typically, moves in the funds rate are anticipated. So, bond rates will respond ahead of a FED move.

In addition, there are some rates which are almost directly controlled by FED policy.

The prime rate, which still matters for credit cards and Libor which matter for ARM resets are tied very tightly to the funds rate.


KNZN says that you can look at the funds rate as a measure rather than an instrument. Thats fine but I think it is just as easy to think of the funds rate as the cost of money for banks.

As the cost of money declines banks make more profit on loans at any given interest rate. Competition between banks will then drive interest rates down.

Its not one-for-one just like the price of crude oil and the price of gasoline don't move on for one, but the relationship is fairly close.

Fri Nov 02, 12:33:00 PM EDT  
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