Conflicting Opinions
I know I should have been done with this last year, but after coming across this piece of Fedspeak reported by Mark Thoma, I couldn't resist.
(Perhaps they keep the realists at the bottom of the duffle bag?)
You'd have to dig pretty far down in the duffle bag of economists to find one who actually believes in the Philips Curve...--Arthur Laffer, Founder and Chairman, Laffer Associates, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2006
The Phillips curve is a core component of every realistic macroeconomic model.--Janet L. Yellen, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speech, Boston Fed Conference on Behavioral Economics, September 28, 2007
(Perhaps they keep the realists at the bottom of the duffle bag?)
Labels: behavioral economics, economics, macroeconomics, Phillips curve
posted by knzn at 9/29/2007 12:48:00 PM
10 Comments:
I used to get all riled up about this myself. The thing is we say Phillips Curve to means Expectations Augmenented Phillips Curve.
I think Laffer, Kudlow, etc are talking about the Solow-Samuelson Phillips curve with a long run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.
There is a robust (R2> 0.8)Phillips curve for the USA between 1960 and 2006 :
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2007/07/how-to-construct-valid-phillips-curve.html
and Germany after 1971 (where data on inflation are available):
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2007/07/phillips-curve-in-germany.html
Yep - the realists are at the bottom of Laffer's duffle bag. And his head is ____________________ (the correct answer is left as an exercise for the student).
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