Saturday, September 29, 2007

Conflicting Opinions

I know I should have been done with this last year, but after coming across this piece of Fedspeak reported by Mark Thoma, I couldn't resist.


You'd have to dig pretty far down in the duffle bag of economists to find one who actually believes in the Philips Curve...
--Arthur Laffer, Founder and Chairman, Laffer Associates, Wall Street Journal, August 24, 2006


The Phillips curve is a core component of every realistic macroeconomic model.
--Janet L. Yellen, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, speech, Boston Fed Conference on Behavioral Economics, September 28, 2007


(Perhaps they keep the realists at the bottom of the duffle bag?)

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10 Comments:

Blogger Karl Smith said...

I used to get all riled up about this myself. The thing is we say Phillips Curve to means Expectations Augmenented Phillips Curve.

I think Laffer, Kudlow, etc are talking about the Solow-Samuelson Phillips curve with a long run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation.

Sat Sep 29, 03:47:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a robust (R2> 0.8)Phillips curve for the USA between 1960 and 2006 :
http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2007/07/how-to-construct-valid-phillips-curve.html

and Germany after 1971 (where data on inflation are available):

http://inflationusa.blogspot.com/2007/07/phillips-curve-in-germany.html

Sat Sep 29, 05:12:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yep - the realists are at the bottom of Laffer's duffle bag. And his head is ____________________ (the correct answer is left as an exercise for the student).

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