Sunday, December 07, 2008

Phillips Curve Presages Deflation

Back of the envelope analysis:


UE rate is now 6.7%.
Almost certain to rise over next couple of months.
Probably at 7% early in '09.

The most optimistic estimates have recession ending about halfway thru '09.
Stimulus program heavy on public works will be slow to implement.

In recent recessions, UE has continued to rise for at least a year afterward.
So a fairly optimistic scenario would have UE rising to 8% by YE '09 and staying there for a year.
That would give average UE around 7.5% for '09 and 8.0% for '10.

Typical estimates put NAIRU at 5%.
So UE gap is 2.5% for '09, 3% for '10.

Typical Phillips curve coefficient is around 0.5
which implies inflation rate will fall by 1.25% in '09
and an additional 1.5% in '10
and continue to fall.

Current inflation rate is around 2%


You do the math

124 Comments:

Blogger Gabriel said...

That sounds about right but then again we should be weary of out-of-sample forecasting.

Also, with a gazion times increase in the base over recent months, we would be otherwise looking at a hyperinflation in '09 or '10, if these were normal times.

Sun Dec 07, 03:40:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

You're quite right that we have to take this with a grain of salt. Actually even in-sample prediction would be an issue here, because the standard error bands around each predicted value are quite wide. And the accelerationist Phillips curve might be the accidental result of conditions that were present, say, from 1960 to 2000 and are no longer present. And the curve, even if it is still valid, could be (probably is, actually) misspecified in a way that makes my result look stronger than it is. (In particular, the "true" curve is probably convex, so the deflationary impact would not be as strong as it is in my linear version.)

Certainly inflation/deflation depends largely on psychological intangibles, which could cut either way. (I could see the current pessimism -- or even maybe rational anticipation -- accelerating the deflation, or I could see a mood of recovery or worries about the long-term effects of monetary policy resulting in inflation instead.)

In fact, I still think it's more likely than not that the inflation rate will remain positive, except maybe for a brief period. But it is a little disturbing that a textbook analysis with rule-of-thumb parameters has us on a crash course with deflation.

Sun Dec 07, 05:21:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anarchus said...

Interesting calculation. And most/many/some of us thought the Phillips Curve was dead! Who knew?

Clearly the Treasury yield curve is suggesting if not outright predicting deflation in 2009 forward, but based on what we've seen in the U.S. thus far I have to be skeptical (the international situation is a different story, but that's too confusing to think about just now).

The Fed's cranked out a COUPLE OF TRILLION $ of monetary liquidity in short order, but thus far it's just laying around the floors of figurative bank vaults around the countryside collecting dust. Put another way, money growth has been a moonshot but since willingness to lend and spend has collapsed apace, velocity has all but vanished.

What worries me is that if some bizarre exogenous factor were to spark consumer and business confidence unexpectedly, there's so much flammable liquidity lying around that the vapors alone could cause a h*lluva explosion, and deflation would NOT be its name . . . . .

Sun Dec 07, 09:15:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Mark said...

The calculation is probably pretty close, but I don't think it's any surprise in the inflation number. My concern lies more with near term deflation.

Mon Dec 08, 07:47:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phillips curve?? Is Happy Days the most popular show on TV too? What year is this? So confused.

Mon Dec 08, 08:07:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

If we still have supply-siders making ill-informed criticisms of the Phillips curve, I'd say "Dallas" is the most popular TV show. What do you think of Reagan's new tax reform proposal?

Mon Dec 08, 09:21:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

Anarchus, I'm not sure that conflagration would be a bad thing. There is already a lot of slack to use up before new demand would put significant upward pressure on prices, and there will be more slack in the months to come. A sudden, dramatic recovery won't necessarily be inflationary for the first year or two, and in the mean time the Fed would be able to withdraw some liquidity.

Mon Dec 08, 02:15:00 PM EST  
Blogger SlimCarlos said...

>> There is already a lot of slack to use up before new demand would put significant upward pressure on prices

A lot of slack?? Check here and here

There is in fact very little slack out there re industrial capacities. And the credit crunch is simply making it worse.

Mon Dec 08, 04:18:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

You can always find examples of bottlenecks, but they aren't going to be enough to cause a general inflation. When prices in one area get too high, it reduces demand for complementary goods/services, and those prices go down. It's the overall broad-based slack that matters for inflation.

The US is mostly a service economy today; services are mostly labor; and 1/8 of the people who want full-time jobs don't have them (U-6, broadest measure of unemployment) -- and that's likely to get worse over the next few months. I just don't see how that gives much opportunity for a sudden turnaround to cause much inflation in the first couple of years.

Mon Dec 08, 05:40:00 PM EST  
Blogger SlimCarlos said...

>> You can always find examples of bottlenecks, but they aren't going to be enough to cause a general inflation.

First of all, these two examples relate to food and energy, and as these two get a head of steam, they will drive inflation elsewhere.

But you miss the larger point, which is: the crunch is cutting two ways; yes, it is cutting back on demand, but it is also cutting back on supply. If supplies get cut more quickly than demand, then you will get inflation.

Tue Dec 09, 06:58:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

When I look at a chart of the price of oil over the past six months, I don't get the impression that supply is contracting faster than demand. And more generally, the idea is just implausible to me, at least if you mean short-run supply. I don't deny the possibility that the current crunch may contribute to inflation five years from now, after our current capital stock has had a chance to depreciate and demand has had a chance to recover.

But I reiterate my point: in an economy whose major product is services, the major component of supply is labor supply. (Actually, that's true even in a manufacturing economy, but even more so in a service economy.) If anything, the crunch is probably increasing labor supply, as people need to seek employment in order to avoid bankruptcy. (You won't see that in the labor force participation number, of course, because that has a large demand-side component: people who would otherwise be seeking employment won't bother if the chances of getting it are too low. They are still on the constrained part of the labor supply curve.)

When you put together the facts (1) that labor is by far the most important component of supply, and it's supply is not contracting, (2) that capital requires time to build and time to depreciate and therefore current supply depends very little on current capital investment, and (3) that, as for raw materials such as energy, the price changes generally indicate that demand is contracting faster than supply, the only reasonable conclusion is that, over the next couple of years, the contraction of demand is going to be much more important than the contraction of supply.

Tue Dec 09, 08:08:00 PM EST  
Blogger missmarketcrash said...

Missmarketcrash has a dark but interesting story about data today -

http://missmarketcrash.blogspot.com/2008/12/enchantress-of-numbers.html

Kind Regards,

Missmarketcrash

Wed Dec 10, 08:17:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Sir Max Higgins said...

Bank of America and Mr. Higgins missing $millions, it can happen to you my, fellows Americans


More info at: http://maxhiggins.com/blog/

Mon Dec 29, 04:34:00 PM EST  
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Thu Feb 19, 05:51:00 AM EST  
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