Saturday, November 29, 2008

Deflation Can Happen

I’m not saying it will happen, or even that it’s likely. As a matter of fact, if you offer me less than 6:1 odds, I won’t even consider a bet on deflation, even taking into account its hedge value (since deflation is likely to be associated with bad real outcomes). But what puzzles me is that James Hamilton seems unwilling to take that bet at any odds. This despite the fact that he repeatedly acknowledges the deflation that Japan was still experiencing less than a decade ago.

He makes an argument (which I will address presently) that the Fed can stop deflation, and he seems to draw from it the conclusion that the Fed will stop deflation. It seems to me he could have made essentially the same argument 15 years ago in Japan, and it would have been wrong. I guess he thinks that, since we have learned from Japan’s mistakes, we can be confident that we will avoid making the same mistakes and therefore confident that we will avoid deflation.

I expect that Japanese policymakers thought they were avoiding the mistakes the US made in the 1930s. And to some extent, they surely were. There is far from universal consensus on what exactly those mistakes were in the first place, but perhaps the single biggest mistake the US made was in using monetary policy to defend the dollar. I expect that Japanese policymakers were congratulating themselves for long ago having had the good sense to float their currency so that mistake wouldn’t happen. (In the years leading up to the deflation, they arguably made the mistake of allowing the yen to appreciate too much on its own, but that's not something they should have learned about from the 1930s.) Another commonly alleged cited mistake the US made was in not using monetary policy to offset the effect that the contraction of the banking system had on the aggregate money supply. I just pulled up some statistics on Japanese monetary aggregates, and I see that Japan definitely did not make that mistake either.

A doctrinaire Keynesian will tell you that the biggest mistake the US made in the early 1930s was in not providing an adequate fiscal stimulus. It’s clear in retrospect that Japan did make that mistake in the 1990s (and early 2000s), but at the time I expect they thought they were avoiding it. The fiscal deficits certainly looked huge enough. And in any case, during the 1990s, the preponderance of economic opinion regarding the 1930s was tending to run against the doctrinaire Keynesian explanation. Overall, avoiding the mistakes of the past is not as easy as it might sound, nor is it guaranteed to be effective, and I have less than complete confidence that US policymakers today will succeed either in doing so or in doing so effectively. Even if the Fed can stop deflation, there’s no guarantee that it will.

But can the Fed, by itself, really stop deflation? It’s a difficult question, because it depends on what policy actions the Fed is capable of taking. There are, for one thing, institutional constraints – in particular, laws – that limit the Fed’s potential actions. There also has to be some sort of “sanity constraint.” There are things that the Fed theoretically could do, but it’s impossible to imagine that it ever actually would. There are certain actions the Fed could take that would be guaranteed to stop deflation, but before the Fed would even consider such actions, it would push Congress repeatedly for more and more fiscal stimuli and accept the fact that Congress will sometimes be slow to provide those stimuli. Meanwhile, the deflation could be well underway.

Taking Professor Hamilton’s specific examples:
First, have the Federal Reserve buy up the entire outstanding debt of the U.S. Treasury, which it can do easily enough by just creating new dollars to pay for the Treasury securities.
Let’s consider this action in two parts. First, the Fed could buy up enough of every issue to push the market yield down to approximately zero. Then it could buy up the remainder of each issue. Would either of these actions stop deflation? The second, almost certainly not, because it just replaces one zero-return asset with another. The first, maybe, but I doubt it. If people expect deflation and have very little tolerance for risk, they will just hold on to most of the money, despite it’s zero nominal return, the same way they held on to the Treasuries. Really, zero is not all that much lower than the yields on Treasury notes today. OK,
Then buy up all the commercial paper anybody cares to issue.
This is where the sanity constraint comes in. On the one hand, the Fed can buy a large but limited amount of commercial paper from reputable issuers. They’re already doing that, and it’s not working, at least it’s not stopping the economic contraction or the talk of deflation.

On the other hand, the Fed can literally “buy up all the commercial paper anybody cares to issue.” That would stop deflation, I agree, but by a very odd mechanism. Anyone could start a thinly capitalized corporation, issue commercial paper, gamble the proceeds, default (unless they win), go bankrupt, and stick the Fed with the losses. It’s roughly equivalent to dropping money from a helicopter, since the money would be out there in the economy and the Fed would no longer have an offsetting asset. In general, such policies that actually create large amounts of new financial wealth, rather than exchanging one form of wealth (i.e. money) for another (i.e. bonds), can stop deflation. But creating financial wealth by deliberately lending to borrowers that are likely to default, this is way too far afield from what the Fed is supposed to do, and it’s not something the Fed ever will do intentionally. But OK:
In fact, you might as well buy up all the equities on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
There are really two parts to such a policy: first, the Fed would create dollars and use them to buy yen; then the Fed would use those yen to buy equities. First of all, could buying yen stop deflation? Well, yes, if we could take Japanese monetary policy as exogenous: if you devalue your currency enough, it will eventually stop deflation. But more likely Japan would respond by buying dollars, and exchange rate wouldn’t change much.

What about buying equities? In any case it would be more effective to buy US equities instead of Japanese. That would stop deflation if done on a sufficiently large scale. Unlike bonds, stocks have no inherent price limit, so if the Fed were willing to pay a sufficiently high price, it could create enough new financial wealth to stop the deflation. But is the Fed allowed to buy equities? My guess is it’s not, but I may be wrong. And if Fed does buy equities, is that still “monetary policy”? The government taking an equity interest in private sector firms sounds like fiscal policy to me.

And if the Fed can buy direct interests in real goods and services (such as equities, which represent partial ownership of capital goods), why not have them stop the deflation directly by buying consumer goods? Let the Fed put huge amounts of gift certificates on the asset side of its balance sheet. That will do the trick. I’m not sure at what point you start to breach the sanity constraint, but to me gift certificates actually seem like a more reasonable asset for the Fed to hold than junk paper.

Anyhow, I’m sure that, between the Fed, the Treasury, the president, and Congress, they can eventually come up with a way to stop deflation. Whether it’s done by expanding the Fed’s role in previously unimaginable ways or by more traditional fiscal stimuli, it will eventually be done on a scale large enough to be effective. I’m confident of that, but I’m not entirely confident that we will reach that point before experiencing a decade of deflation.

68 Comments:

Blogger sterk said...

The article was as usual very interesting.
The way to fight deflation is (as you, in essence discuss) to print money. But wouldn't, a big scale "printing" activity, cause dilution for the currency? What about the big debtors of US economy (China and Japan) which will see their (treasury) holdings to be diluted? and what the position of the dollar after the shock will be? I doubt it will retain its current position, as the safest and most important currency in the world...

Sat Nov 29, 12:35:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

Printing money, in and of itself, is not necessarily enough either to stop deflation or to elicit complaints of dilution. What we care about, and what the Chinese and the Japanese care about, is not the quantity of dollars but the value of those dollars. As with anything that's freely traded, the value of money depends on both supply and demand, and the shape of the demand curve is important. If demand is highly elastic, then changes in the quantity supplied won't have much affect on the value.

I'm arguing that the demand for money may well be highly elastic in its current range, at least if the alternative is other financial assets. Or, to put it another way, money and other financial assets are close substitutes. However, if the Fed can increase the total quantity of money plus other financial assets (i.e. total financial wealth), then it can raise the price of goods (hopefully only far enough to prevent deflation, in which case the Chinese and Japanese won't have cause to complain). I think everyone agrees that real goods and financial assets are not close substitutes.

The trick is finding ways to increase total financial wealth, which is hard because the Fed's usual activity consists of just buying other financial assets. Basically what the Fed would have to do is either buy real assets (like stock) or pay more for the financial assets than they're really worth (e.g. agree to buy junk paper at a price that doesn't fully account for default risk).

A more straightforward thing to do is just use fiscal policy and have it financed by the Fed.

(Note that, under ordinary circumstances, when money and financial assets are not such close substitutes, the Fed can increase the total quantity of financial wealth just by buying assets and driving up their price. In that case there is no need to use fiscal policy, which is why most economists today think that, under ordinary circumstances, fiscal policy is not a necessary tool for managing the macroeconomy.)

Sat Nov 29, 05:22:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Kaleberg said...

1) As someone on a fixed income, and having a fair bit of cash on hand in anticipation of the meltdown, I am eagerly awaiting deflation. In fact, the early signs are already promising. I may finally be able to afford that trip to NYC I keep postponing, and if prices continue to fall I am hoping to enclose my patio. As far as I am concerned: Go deflation! Then again, I used to work in the computer business where Moore's law did a pretty good job of predicting deflation, so I tend to see it as a positive force.

2) Of course, it isn't clear that the Fed can use monetary policy to increase the number of other financial assets, at least not in any meaningful sense. What has any sentient person learned in the past decade? First that the increased value of stocks and mutual funds are not wealth, and that they should not have been so stupid as to allow a soaring market portfolio to deceive them into thinking that they were better off. Second, that the increased value of their home is not wealth, and that they should not have been so stupid ....

Wall Street can crank out all sorts of financial instruments with attractive sounding names, but at some point they have to offload them on ordinary consumers, i.e. suckers, if they are going to take their gains as cash. Unfortunately, it is going to take some doing to convince these suckers to buy. The new credo may be: fool me once, fool me twice, but the third time's the charm. Besides, they are all going to lose their jobs and not have any money to buy pieces of paper.

Sat Nov 29, 11:48:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Peter Carvapai said...

On the issue of the purchase of stocks by the Reserve Bank with printed money and the issuance of gift certificates, I would like to bring a point of great importance, which is the reversible and profitable character of the former.

You are right. At the moment there is a huge preference (demand) for money and therefore the Federal Reserve Bank can increase the quantity of the same without affecting the purchasing power of the dollar.

However, later on the Reserve Bank will most likely be called to neutralize the excessive amounts of money created during the current phase, which will require an increase in the future tax burden if gift certificates are issued against money as nobody except the poor Treasury will be willing to purchase them.

If,however, the Federal Reserve buys now stocks in the open market (apparently at very attractive prices) then later on it will be able to offload the same and,most likely, at a profit. This is certainly monetary policy albeit a very unconventional one,but the monetary policy book is still an unfinished work. Paper money itself was a very unconventional thing a few centuries ago.

Sun Nov 30, 02:01:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Laurent GUERBY said...

knzn, you mean that if the treasury says "we'll send $1000 every month to each living american taxpayer and do so until we see inflation going up and USD fx going down" (with on the balance sheet "thin air" written on the other side) will not always fuel inflation and devaluate the currency?

That's about 4 trillion per year with "thin air" on the other side.

Sun Nov 30, 10:00:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Deflation would be great. Consumers could buy more with their dollar.

Sun Nov 30, 10:12:00 AM EST  
Anonymous David Pearson said...

I think you misunderstand Hamilton's point on the Fed purchasing vast amounts of assets.

Assume that it is impossible for the Fed to create inflation by printing money, Hamilton says. That means the Fed can purchases assets of value with printed money. Because no inflation will ensue, the Fed can basically purchase ALL the assets that it wants to. All the commercial paper, all the equities, even all the productive capacity. In the end, at no cost, the Fed owns EVERYTHING.

Of course Hamilton knows the Fed will do no such thing. He's just pointing out that the deflationist argument is absurd.

Of course, the deflationists would counter that the Fed would trigger hyperinflation if they purchased so many assets. Hamilton replies that there is no "hair trigger" on hyperinflation, and that the Fed can manage to create inflation long before it turns into the "hyper" variety.

Sun Nov 30, 10:56:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

David,

If that's what Hamilton is saying, he is using a total straw man. And from that straw man he seems to be inferring a substantive point about the real world. Nobody will deny that the Fed can prevent deflation by creating enough money, if it has unlimited opportunities to do so. But he jumps to the conclusion that we don't need to worry about deflation.

I would argue that (1) for practical purposes, the Fed's opportunities to create money are limited, to an extent that would allow deflation if the demand for money were high enough, and (2) even if the Fed does have enough opportunities, it can make repeated misjudgments and not create enough money to stop the deflation until it is well underway. Either of these hypotheses could arguably explain what happened in Japan, and there is no reason that they could not also apply in the US today. Probably (though I'm not certain) there is no hair trigger, but there is certainly the opportunity for repeated misjudgments about the parameters, even if the function is smooth.

I don't see how Hamilton makes any headway against the deflationist argument with his straw man.


Laurent,

I think you are misunderstanding me. If the Treasury sends money to taxpayers, that is fiscal policy, not monetary policy. If the payments come out of thin air, then it is a combination of monetary and fiscal policy. I never denied that a combination of monetary and fiscal policy, on a sufficiently large scale, could reliably stop deflation and cause inflation. There is an open question of what the right scale is, and how long it will take before the government reaches that scale.

But monetary policy alone -- which consists of the purchase of financial assets by the monetary authority -- may not be enough to stop deflation, unless they deliberately pay more than the assets are worth.

However, I will also say that I'm not convinced that $4 trillion (at least in the first year) would necessarily be enough to even stop deflation, let alone cause severe inflation. It depends on the demand for money, the propensity to save, and the severity of the recession. I agree that if they announced they would do it for several years, that would almost certainly cause inflation.


Peter,

I take your point (and in any case now that I think about it the gift certificate idea clearly does violate the sanity constraint). But bear in mind that the policy's profitability will be inversely proportional to its effectiveness. The policy works in stopping deflation because it increases the total amount of assets (i.e. total wealth), thus inducing people to spend more. This requires that the Fed pay more for the stocks than their current price. The more they pay, the more effective it will be, but the less profit (or the more loss) they will make.

Sun Nov 30, 11:54:00 AM EST  
Blogger Bruce Wilder said...

I think you've been doing a remarkably good job -- interesting and a valuable service in these times.

I am a little curious about why you think we are not witnessing deflation -- the yield curve implied by TIPS and the spiking upward of rates on corporate debt, not to mention the CPI, sure look like deflation to me.

Excellent work you've been doing. Thanks for your essays.

Sun Nov 30, 04:18:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would to second Bruce. I have really appreciated & admired your recent work here.

Bob McManus

Sun Nov 30, 04:34:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

Bruce (and Bob),

Thank you for the compliment.

We may be experiencing deflation, but I think it's much too early to tell. In the light of data that I've looked at since I wrote this, I might accept 4:1 odds now or even less. Bond yields certainly seem suggest an expectation of deflation, but so far there is only a tiny bit of direct evidence that that expectation will be realized. (One swallow does not make a summer, as they say.)

Also, the TIPS spread right now almost certainly includes both a significant liquidity premium and a hedge premium (if that's what it's called). If you're short the CPI, your bet pays off in a worst case scenario, so it's like insurance. (I'll credit Bob Barro with the hedge premium idea, though it had also occurred to me before I read that. I feel like I'm not supposed to say good things about Bob Barro, but really, you have to be pretty smart to be able to make plausible arguments for some of his implausible ideas, and being smart obviously has its advantages even when you're dealing with reasonable ideas.)

We are certainly in an "asset deflation" and a "commodity deflation" (although the later may end at any point without prior notice). But in the sense that I use the word, deflation would have to be "value added deflation." If prices go down because raw materials prices are going down, that's not much of a problem for most of the economy. When the price of the part we actually produce starts to go down, that's when the "deflation is very bad" argument applies, because it means there is a disincentive to invest in future production. Even if you ignore risk and liquidity issues, both TIPS spreads and the small drop in the core CPI are consistent with a positive rate of "value added inflation" (at least if you ignore the value added in the extraction and processing of raw materials, but I figure those are a small part of our overall economy, and in any case their value added is badly measured, for example, if an oil company is still carrying properties at an outdated cost and perhaps has even exhausted its depletion allowances, etc.)

Sun Nov 30, 05:42:00 PM EST  
Blogger Stevie b. said...

Maybe it's very simple. "Printing" more money just pushing on a string? Want the world to anticipate a bit of inflation and actually start spending a.s.a.p.? Get the Fed and the ECB to tell the world they're buying gold!

Mon Dec 01, 02:08:00 AM EST  
Blogger SlimCarlos said...

This is a good, germane debate. I find it odd though that you omit the one instance where the Fed *did* halt deflation in its tracks. You are not alone here -- it seems everyone tries to pretend this did not happen, even as it appears to be the singular most effective thing FDR did to arrest the deflationary spiral.

I am referring to the gold purchase program of '33-'34. The Fed went out and bought gold from $20 up to $35, funded by the printing press. This did two things: 1. It reflated the economy and 2. It created inflation expectations. In a word, the program amounted to a managed devaluation.

Why does this episode remain the act that not dare speak its name?

Here is what others have to say on the matter:

"The gold inflows to the US after 1933 are particularly important. The government stood ready to buy gold at a fixed price.The price of gold was changed througout 1933 but was fixed in 1934 (see Sumner (2004)). The administration bought the gold by issuing nominal liabilities (i.e. government credit). On the government balance sheet these purchases mainly showed up as non-borrowed reserves held by commercial banks at the Federal Reserve. Since the nominal interest rate was zero during this period, there was no meaningful difference between base money (defined as non-borrowed reserves plus currency in circulation) and short-term government debt. Both were nominal liabilities to private entities that carried zero interest. This means that the "gold program" pursued by FDR was important to make future inflation credible because it increased the inflation incentive of the government, a conclusion that is at variance with a common verdict of FDR gold purchases. The same point is made in Sumner (2004) who states that "the gold-buying program has been unfairly maligned by both contemporaneous critics and modern historians." See Eggertsson (2003) for a formal analysis of the effect of buying real asset on the inflation incentive of the government." Gauti B. Eggertsson, "Great Expectations and the End of the Depression", Staff Report no. 234, NY Fed, December 2005.

"Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation." Ben Bernanke, "Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here", Remarks Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., November 21, 2002.

Mon Dec 01, 11:48:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

The reason I didn't mention the 1933 episode is that it amounts to a devaluation of the dollar, which is something I did discuss explicitly.

But it's probably a point that should be discussed, because maybe it was the actual gold purchases that mattered and not the devaluation with respect to other currencies. The latter, as I argued, is unlikely to be practicable now, because the other countries will intervene as well and reverse the effect. I suspect that gold purchases on that scale would not have much effect today, because other countries would try to outbid the US, so to speak.

However, now that I think about it, there may well be some scale on which gold purchases would stop deflation, even if other countries were purchasing in competition. Or would the purchases they just keep producing larger and larger increases in the price of gold without having much effect on the prices of things (i.e. almost everything) that don't use gold or its close substitutes as an input? I'll have to think about that.

If exchange rates are not an issue, there's no obvious reason that increases in the price of gold would induce people to spend money on other things. They would just mean (if increases were expected to continue) that gold had become an even better store of value than money. Which doesn't solve the original problem that money has become a better store of value than capital. In fact, it makes the problem worse. The real return on gold will be quite high, even higher than what the real return on money has been, whereas capital investments will still be paying off quite badly in real terms.

Mon Dec 01, 12:25:00 PM EST  
Blogger Stevie b. said...

knzn - when you think further about this gold issue, please don't forget the psychological dimension. A lot of pressure on ordinary citizens can come from headlines such as "Fed dumps dollars for gold" or "ECB buys gold, Euro is euseless" etc etc.

It might not take too much of this sort of stuff to get people out of a world awash with money into things, and then off we go on a possibly short lap round the financial circuit.

Mon Dec 01, 04:12:00 PM EST  
Blogger SlimCarlos said...

>> maybe it was the actual gold purchases that mattered and not the devaluation with respect to other currencies.

I think you are talking about one and the same thing. The money supply increased by something like 40% over a short period as gold was bought and dollars sold (injected in broad-base fashion, not just into a handful of money-center banks to hoard, as we see now) and that in and of itself amounted to a devaluation against real things. Commodity prices soared when the Supreme Court upheld the measure. But additionally, the visibility of the devaluation -- explicitely taking the dollar from 1/20th an ounce to 1/35th an ounce -- also signalled the Fed's *credible* intention to devalue. The msg was unmistakable: use it or lose it. And use it they did.


>> However, now that I think about it, there may well be some scale on which gold purchases would stop deflation, even if other countries were purchasing in competition.

You wanna stop this mess? The Fed comes out tomorrow and says it's bid $5000/oz, offered at $5010/oz. Assume the same amount of privately held gold would flow in from around the world, which was about 10,000 tonnes. At $5000/oz, this amount to a cash injection of about $1.5t. Moreover, the higher price would encourage increased gold production (but less than one might think, even at $5000), thereby credibly managing inflation expectations upwards. At the same time, because of the "hard backing", there would be no danger of going Zimbabwe.

It would also ensure the dollar's reserve currency status for another 50 years, something that has certainly helped the US over the last 50 years.

Bernanke came out and said today it would consider buying treasuries. Why not buy something real instead?

I know this idea is "weird", but this is precisely what the Fed did last time around we were in such dire straights -- the only solution that's been road-tested, as it were -- even as economists today like to pretend it never happened. (Not referring to yourself, but rather to a raft of economists who artfully avoid the subject.)

You need a fulcrum to reflate. In today's fiat money world, there is no fulcrum. This is the real dilemma. Thoughts?

Mon Dec 01, 10:03:00 PM EST  
Blogger Stevie b. said...

SlimCarlos - I have really appreciated your input.

I wondered what you and knzn think the consequences might be of the following?

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2008/12/how_to_return_to_a_gold_standa.html

Tue Dec 02, 06:59:00 AM EST  
Blogger 信次 said...

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Thu Feb 19, 06:06:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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Sun Mar 08, 11:08:00 AM EDT  
Blogger 正享 said...

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Sun Mar 22, 02:56:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

福~
「朵
語‧,最一件事,就。好,你西.............................................................................................................
..................

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