Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Deficit Hawks are Like Protectionists

Everybody knows that, in the aggregate, trade increases welfare. We can quibble about how to aggregate welfare across individuals, but at least in a Kaldor-Hicks sense, trade increases welfare. In that aggregate welfare sense, trade is a free lunch, and that lunch is wasted if nobody eats it. But protectionists argue that the redistributive effects of trade can often be bad enough to outweigh the aggregate advantage. Trade can hurt certain parties that one may wish not to hurt. The overall pie is larger, but someone’s share may be smaller.

When an economy has slack resources, as the US economy – as well as the world economy – clearly does now and likely will even more in the immediate future, there is no aggregate welfare cost to using up those resources, so any benefit society receives is, in the aggregate, free. In an aggregate welfare sense, slack resources are a free lunch, and that lunch is wasted if nobody eats it. Deficit hawks talk about the cost to taxpayers and the cost to future generations and all that. But let it be noted that fiscal stimuli during times of slack resource use make the overall pie larger, and any objections must rest on the premise that the new division of the pie leaves some particular party with a smaller slice despite the larger pie. It’s pretty much analogous to the argument for protectionism.

You can argue about whether resources are truly slack. There is a labor/leisure tradeoff, you might say, so there is always a cost to employing those supposedly slack resources. I warn you not to make that argument, because I will counterattack by taking a more extreme position than I took originally: not only are the resources slack; they are more than slack. In an aggregate welfare sense, you actually get a bonus for using up those resources, even if they don’t produce anything. It seems obvious to me that the emotional pain involved in unemployment typically outweighs the value of the additional leisure. (I know you’ll give the counterexample of your cousin who had always wanted to learn to play the guitar and he finally got the chance when he lost his job: but your cousin is not typical.) Add in the search costs, and it’s a slam-dunk. At this point I might be willing to compromise and say that the resources are just plain slack, not “hyperslack,” if you agree to abandon once and for all the labor/leisure argument.

Now I also hear echoes in my head saying, “There is a cost to using those resources, because, even if they are in some sense slack, the additional demand will shift the Phillips curve and raise the expected inflation rate.” Dude, that’s not a cost! Have you noticed that the nominal 10-year Treasury yield is trading less than 100 basis points above the comparable TIPS? How you noticed that the price of oil has fallen by more than 50% over the space of a few months, and that other commodity prices have fallen dramatically too? Have you studied what happened in the US in the early 1930s, and in Japan in the late 1990s? Gimme that expected inflation, Baby, and give it to me hard!

OK, sorry for the vulgarity, but back to the original point: just like the protectionists, the deficit hawks must be concerned about the redistributive effects of deficits, since the aggregate effect is to increase welfare. But while the protectionists actually have a pretty good argument (at least at the national level, in developed countries) as to why the redistributive effects are bad and might be expected to outweigh the aggregate effects in terms of importance, the deficit hawks’ arguments seem pretty lame to me.

The main issue would seem to be redistribution from future generations to the current generation. Here’s a point I made a couple of years ago, but I’ll repeat it: in the history of capitalism, there has been a consistent long-term trend of increasing welfare, by pretty much any reasonable measurement. You can complain about some of the things that have gotten worse, but the fact is, the19th century really sucked for most people, and the 18th century sucked even worse. And compared to the 1990s, the 1920s sucked, too. Unless we expect the trend to suddenly reverse itself, the likelihood is that future generations will be, in the relevant sense, richer than the current generation. So the deficit is a transfer from relatively rich future generations to the relatively poor current generation. I would hope that those future generations could spare a few extra pennies for such miserable folk as we. Especially since it is our blood, sweat, and tears that will have made them so rich. It is through no merit or toil of their own that they will come of age using microprocessors that run 1000 times faster than the ones we use today.

There are other arguments, but they’re even lamer. There is the idea that we will be paying interest to the Chinese for decades, as if that constituted a transfer of wealth from the US to China. It’s actually just the opposite. We are paying chicken shit interest to the Chinese, because they are so eager to keep their currency weak that they willingly overpay for US assets. Meanwhile, any reasonable capital investment by the US government will produce higher returns. Maybe we use the money for consumption rather than capital investment, but that the just brings us back to the “future generations” argument.

32 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

knzn, emphatically agree that trade makes us better off in aggregate.

I'd appreciate an amplification on your last few sentences, though:

"Meanwhile, any reasonable capital investment by the US government will produce higher returns."

Isn't there a "crowding out" effect if government capital is used instead of private capital? Just in the same way that protectionism distorts the process of finding the most productive use of capital, I think government investment usually distorts the allocation of capital. (Tragedy of the commons and non-financial stakeholders' goals excepted.)

Do you think the TARP and other government programs are crowding out private capital?

Wed Nov 12, 09:46:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

Government deficits don't always crowd out private investment. Crowding out happens in two particular situations.

The first situation requires two conditions (1) that there is a binding constraint (i.e. no slack) on real resources and (2) that the deficit actually uses up some of those real resources. In any case I would say (as I did in the post) that condition (1) is not true today. But as for condition (2), I think also that it is in general not true in the case of a financial bailout, because that is just a transfer of money. The financial bailout may (and is intended to) have real consequences, but those aren't government purchases; they are private purchases, so it would be more accurate to say it "crowds in" private investment.

The second situation is when monetary policy is not directly attempting to optimize aggregate demand. The traditional assumption is that the money supply is exogneous (i.e. fixed in the short run). In that case government spending crowds out private investment because it raises interest rates, which choke off private investment. But in that case, resources could still be underutilized (or overutilized) after the crowding out takes place. Basically it means following the old monetarist idea for how monetary policy should be conducted, and that idea hasn't been very popular with the Fed since the early 1980s.

Well, OK, actually there's a third situation, where the Fed makes a wrong forecast about resource use and stays tighter than it needs to be, so it raises interest rates unnecessarily to offset the deficit, and the higher rates reduce private investment. And maybe a fourth situation, where the Fed and the government disagree about the appropriate timing for a stimulus. And even a fifth situation, where the Fed is deliberately trying to underuse resources in order to stop inflation.

In any case, none of those apply today, because Bernanke has even asked for a fiscal stimulus. In the current situation, where everyone agrees that there are slack resources and that something should be done to mobilize those resources, the Fed will eliminate any "crowding out" effect by creating enough money to facilitate the increased deficit without raising interest rates. (That's a simplification, because for one thing, the term structure will probably change, but I'm not going to get into a more detailed discussion here.) Since firms can still borrow at the same rate, there is no crowding out.

And arguably, again, with some of the financial bailouts, there will be "crowding in." For example, when the government "borrows" to buy commercial paper, that makes it easier for firms to invest. (I put the word "borrows" in parentheses, because much of the so-called borrowing could actually take the form of seigniorage, especially when the interest rate reaches zero, which the T-bill rate has already touched once or twice.)

Wed Nov 12, 11:58:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The main issue would seem to be redistribution from future generations to the current generation. Here’s a point I made a couple of years ago, but I’ll repeat it: in the history of capitalism, there has been a consistent long-term trend of increasing welfare, by pretty much any reasonable measurement. You can complain about some of the things that have gotten worse, but the fact is, the19th century really sucked for most people, and the 18th century sucked even worse. And compared to the 1990s, the 1920s sucked, too. Unless we expect the trend to suddenly reverse itself, the likelihood is that future generations will be, in the relevant sense, richer than the current generation."

We have left future generations a depleted stock of natural resources, a diminished number of species and eco-diversity, nuclear waste, a polluted and overcrowded planet. Yet you assume the future will be better than the past because - it has always ever been thus under capitalism! So, by this reasoning, we can borrow any sum we want, because this is capitalism and the future is always better! So why stop at 10 trillion in debt? Make it 100 trillion! No make it 100000 trillion. It doesn't matter, because we can be sure the future is always better.

Thu Nov 13, 05:28:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is the deficit truly an intergenerational transfer from the future to the present? The current generation is both making and receiving the interest payments on it.

Isn’t fiscal stimulus at the margin effectively a transfer of income from today’s savers (bond buyers) to today’s spenders (those with the new income generated by the stimulus)?

Thu Nov 13, 07:00:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem with large debt is that unless the interest rate on the marginal increase in debt is low, increasing the debt increases the debt servicing costs, and unless there is an increase in tax revenues, these increases in debt servicing costs will crowd out future program expenditures.
We're moving into an era where social security costs are going to be increasing with the retirement of the baby boomer generation.
So, I agree with knzn that we should stimulate the economy if borrowing costs are low and slack resources will be employed. On the "accounting" side, the government bottom line should be better. But it is important for the government to also think long run, because these baby boomers are going to be a massive strain on the younger generations, unless these younger generations are much more productive than the baby boomer generation. With the prospect of climate change costs accelerating, it is hard to believe that overall we will have any major increases in productivity, but you all may have other views on our prospects for sustainable growth.

Thu Nov 13, 12:08:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I completely disagree that the future is always better off; for instance, Europe in the 17th century was significantly WORSE off than the 13th, just as Europe in the 6th century was significantly worse off than the Roman empire in the 2nd.

I think you've failed to consider the idea that perhaps, the economy needs to be managed for *all* parties, rather than just the small 5% subset that profits from an eternally growing pie at the expense of 95% of humanity.

Thu Nov 13, 12:22:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Unless we expect the trend to suddenly reverse itself"

You mean like in housing markets where we saw the private markets (of course, the government is *known* to be so much more accurate/efficient/honest in this regard...) have managed to create 2 million economically unjustifiable homes.

Goody - maybe the all wise, all honest government can create another *4* million economically unjustifiable homes.

But at least we won't have "slack resources".

But, golly, today we don't seem so thrilled about the cost incurred to make sure we didn't have "slack" from 2002 to 2006....

I mean, it is one thing to fiscally rape our children (per your outlook) and it is another to fiscally rape ourselves...(4 years alleged full employment - and mightily of illegals, at that - isn't too much of a benefit for a destroyed capital market system.)

You know, in the long run, we *aren't* *all* dead, just individual Keynesians...there is something to be said for not shitting all over the future in order to salvage the spendthrifts of today.

Thu Nov 13, 02:43:00 PM EST  
Blogger ProGrowthLiberal said...

I'm not in favor of short-run fiscal restraint but once we get past this period of weak aggregate demand, a return to long-term fiscal snaity would be in order.

Thu Nov 13, 04:12:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Everybody knows that, in the aggregate, trade increases welfare."

Trade that results from a comparative advantage increases welfare.

But there is no particular evidence that trade that is simply emergent behavior arising from the complex system of international laws, trade balances and oil pricing artifacts contributes to the general welfare at all.

"We are paying chicken shit interest to the Chinese, because they are so eager to keep their currency weak that they willingly overpay for US assets."

There is no such thing as "chicken-shit interest" when you are borrowing trillions of dollars to prop up your entire economy. The whole point of doing so is to make US assets worth more. If it works then the Chinese won't be "overpaying for US assets".

And if it doesn't work then they won't be able to buy our goods.... which means we won't be able to buy theirs. Won't we then lose all the aggregate benefits of trade?

You can not "cheat" your trading partner in the long run. Either both sides benefit from trade or neither side does.

Fri Nov 14, 10:55:00 AM EST  
Blogger TheTrucker said...

If deficit hawks wish to win their game they will need to concentrate on raising revenue as opposed to decreasing expenditures. That will quickly divide the so called "deficit hawks" into conservatives and progressives.

If we return to the tax code of 1978 we will hit the Texas oil man with a 70% tax on his $50k/week royalties. Yet the oil will continue to flow and the price of fuel will remain unchanged. That is what happens when you tax truly unearned income -- NOTHING.

The secondary effect is that the T-Bills that were being purchased by the Texas oil man will now need to be bought by the Chinese or some other entity or interest rates will rise. And in addition the 78 tax code drives people away from T-bills and toward actual investments (capital gains rates at 28% while interest from T-bills is taxed at 70%).

Interest rates will rise but so too will _real_ capital investment.

The question is "what will government do with the revenue as opposed to what the oil man would have done?" The answer in the near term is that government can do more for the economy and the common people than the oil man.

Trickle down economics was only a means to increase wealth disparity. If you give rich people a tax cut they have more money.... End of story.

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