Monday, November 10, 2008

The Chinese Fiscal Stimulus

[EDIT: OK, I take it all back. Well, not all of it, but some of it. With the benefit of some perspicacious comments, 50 minutes of jogging, and 200 mg of modafinil, I see that I was mixing up several different models in my mind (an inherent hazard when you try to use two-country models to analyze a world where some exchange rates are fixed and others float). In standard Keynesian-style models, the Chinese stimulus is unambiguously good for non-dollar countries, and the effect on the US is ambiguous. I don't have time to explain now or to do the appropriate overstrikes, but I will get to it later and probably add a new post on the subject.]

There’s no question in my mind that the Chinese fiscal stimulus is a good idea – from China’s own point of view, as well as from the point of view of general balance and long-term stability in the world. But I wouldn’t jump to the conclusion that the policy will be good for the rest of the world (or particularly the US) in the short run.

The fiscal stimulus has to be financed, and given China’s de facto currency peg, it will have to be financed by reducing purchases of foreign assets (particularly US government securities). Reduced demand from China will put downward pressure on asset prices in general at a time when falling asset prices (though not specifically US government securities, of course) are already a problem. It will also complicate any US fiscal stimulus by making it more difficult to finance. Moreover, the portion of US deficits that China no longer finances will instead have to be financed elsewhere, and the higher interest rates necessary to attract such financing will tend strengthen the dollar, making US goods and services less attractive. All three of these effects would tend to exacerbate economic weakness in the US.

On the other hand, the fiscal stimulus will also mean increased demand for imports by the Chinese. It’s not clear which effect will predominate. In textbook theoretical Keynesian-style open economy macromodels, the former effects are more likely to predominate, which would mean the stimulus is bad for the US economy. In the real world, it’s not clear that this would be the case, but it’s also not clear that it wouldn’t.

22 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

knzn, details of the Chinese plan are sketchy. Why couldn't they conduct seignorage: just printing renminbi instead of borrowing? Then there'd be plenty of powder to keep buying Treasurys.

Also, if the renminbi is as undervalued as the World Bank suggests, couldn't this be a relatively graceful way for China to step back from Tsy purchases anyway?

Third, I am uncertain how you conclude that the Chinese will buy more imports with their stimulus money. Some will, but couldn't the stock market bust and lack of a health care and pensions system lead to more domestic Chinese savings, not more spending?

Fourth, only the Treasury (and therefore Congress) can create or destroy dollars. The Fed merely determines if it is owned on its balance sheet or in the securities markets. So if the Chinese want to continue to sell us their exports, they will continue to find USD assets to buy. Treasurys remain the liquid, safe choice, as equity and real estate stakes are too politically difficult and have been unsuccessful so far (Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, the Reserve Primary Fund).

Bond newbie

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