Wednesday, December 03, 2008

I’m with Mephistopheles

Paul Krugman makes the case for deliberately providing too much of an economic stimulus. Here I want to examine the counter-case, for which I think there is a valid argument, although it doesn’t seem to be the argument that anyone is actually making. In the end, though, I agree with Professor Krugman: too much is better than too little.

Here’s the thing, though: there is one big advantage in doing too little economic stimulus. I mean, doing some, doing a significant amount, but not quite enough. The advantage (as I have argued in many of my recent posts) is that it doesn’t cost anything, because it can be financed with seignorage.

Professor Krugman makes the case that, from the point of view of the condition of the economy – the tradeoff between output and inflation, which is what macroeconomists usually care about – it is better to do too much, because, if you do too much, the Fed has the power to undo the excess by raising interest rates (whereas, if you do too little, there is nothing the Fed can do about it, since we’re in a liquidity trap). But as most people writing for the public acknowledge (or insist), there is more to care about than the condition of the economy. There is also the condition of the government’s finances.

As far as the government’s finances are concerned, it is not just a bad idea to do too much; it is a bad idea to do enough. As long as you don’t do enough, standard textbook macroeconomic theory (at least the Keynesian kind, which is the one most influential among economic forecasters) says that there will be disinflationary, and ultimately deflationary, pressure. It’s a pretty simple point of logic. “Doing enough” is defined as getting the economy on a track where the unemployment rate will go down to the NAIRU (or possibly lower, if deflation takes hold and we are trying to reverse it). What other definition could there be? Then by definition of the NAIRU (the “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment,” which, if looked at from the other direction, is the non-decelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or eventually the non-accelerating deflation rate of unemployment), the inflation rate will tend to keep falling. Therefore, the Fed can keep creating money, financing the Treasury, and there will be no inflation (or any other deleterious effects that I can think of).

Once you do enough, not only does the government have to start doing real borrowing to finance its deficit; it also has to pay real interest on the outstanding debt. The government is like a monopolist facing a kinked demand curve. As long as you stay below the kink, the more you produce, the better. But as soon as you get to the kink, all Hell breaks loose. Not only are you unable to sell your marginal “new” products for a profitable price; the price of your inframarginal “old” products starts to go down too.

This puts us in a position rather like Goethe’s Faust. (I’ve only read selected passages, and those in very loose translation, so I’m relying on someone else’s analysis here, and probably an inaccurate memory even of that.) Faust is granted unlimited knowledge, until the point where he can say it is finally enough, that he has reached the culmination of human experience. At that point his soul belongs to the Devil. Similarly we are granted unlimited economic stimulus, until the point where we can say it is finally enough. At that point we are damned to Eternal Debt.

But as I argued in an earlier post, even with a debt-financed stimulus, we have a net free lunch, in the same sense that Ricardians argue that international trade provides a net free lunch. With the stimulus, there is more produced today than there would otherwise be, and at no point in the future will production have to be reduced in order to pay for the increased production today. There is unambiguously more. There may be issues about distribution, as there are with trade, but overall there is unambiguously more. Perhaps the current generation benefits at the expense of future generations, but the current generation gains more than the future generation loses.

I want to say one other thing. Even with the biggest fiscal stimulus anyone can imagine, our debt-to-GDP ratio will still end up lower than it was at the end of World War II. As I recall, that situation didn’t work out too badly. In fact, as a representative of the Future Generations that were affected by that debt – a representative who has a self-defrosting refrigerator-freezer, an automatic washing machine and dryer, a dishwasher, an air conditioner, a flat-screen color television set, a VCR/DVD player, several personal computers, an air-conditioned car with automatic transmission and power brakes that gets 35 MPG on unleaded gasoline, a blackberry, wireless internet access, immunity to polio, the ability to make a living without putting my pants on, and the opportunity to go to sleep after dusk in New York and wake up before sunrise in London despite the time difference – I would like to thank our grandparents for choosing damnation. Hell doesn’t really seem all that bad.

And in Goethe’s version, doesn’t Faust end up going to Heaven?

121 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow knzn! That was quite something! So I take it that you're not worried about "eternal debt" then.

Wed Dec 03, 03:42:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

I don't see why it matters if the debt is internal or external. Someday (perhaps) the bondholders come to collect and demand real goods. If they're foreign, that's called a trade surplus. If they're domestic, there isn't a name for it, but it's the same thing: the non-bondholders have to pay higher taxes and give up consumption (or government services) so that the bondholders can consume more. Or else nominal growth is fast enough (as it was in the decades following WWII) that paying back is no longer an issue because the debt gets smaller relative to GDP.

If anything, I'd say it's better that it be foreign debt, because exchange rate movements can take some of the sting out of the adjustment process. And if it's central banks holding the bonds, even better, because central banks are notoriously averse to instability and won't be subject to the sudden changes of sentiment that can happen in financial markets.

Wed Dec 03, 05:28:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think you misunderstood me. I was referring to your comment:
"At that point we are damned to Eternal Debt."
But I gather from what you said after the comment that you mean that productivity will be increased enough by the stimulus that it will pay for itself in the long run.

Wed Dec 03, 07:10:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

Oops. I misread your comment.

I don't know what will happen with the Eternal Debt, but at least the historical example worked out well. And we know that, overall, the stimulus doesn't cost the US anything, because the resources used would otherwise be wasted. It's a question of whether the distributional effects are a problem. And it's not clear whether future generations would actually be worse off, given the possible deleterious impact of a depression.

Wed Dec 03, 07:50:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

OK - thanks knzn for the clarification.

Thu Dec 04, 09:17:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey knzn,

I'm a bit tired today, so you might have implied this and I missed it:

In the ideal world we'd do "the right amount of stimulus." I'll leave it to you and Krugman to argue about whether that is "enough" or "enough minus delta X."

The critical point is that we don't really know what "enough" is, certainly not enough to target "enough minus delta X."

Hence, Krugman's argument is, it seems to me, put all the options on the table, go for it... because we have policy tools (taxation and others) to clamp down on irrational exuberance if we need them.

Whereas, assembling all options on the table is probably, politically a one off possibility. With a new President and Congress, you've probably got 3 chances to get out the heavy battalions. Krugman (correctly I suspect) guesses that Obama needs to use 2 of those chances on Healthcare and Energy Supply.

That is, there's one chance to assemble the options for dealing with the crisis, before we fall back into the right-wing neo-Hoover land. Better to ask for too much and end up reversing some of it through tax rises than to ask for too little...

Fri Dec 05, 09:00:00 AM EST  
Anonymous David Pearson said...

knzn,

You are truly a believer in American exceptionalism. We are the shining light on the bailout hill.

So paying for stimulus with printed money yields a permanent increase in output? Someone should have told Argentina, or Brazil, or Japan and Germany in Post-War periods, or Turkey, France, Russia, England...well, you get the picture.

But in the U.S., we damn well get to have our free lunch.

Except...Rewind the video a little bit. We had that permanent increase in output in 2003 the last time the Fed cut rates to 1%. It wasn't quite Keynesian -- more classic monetary driven by housing. But still, it was a free lunch, right? I mean, output just stayed right up there, and we never had to give it back, right?

Fri Dec 05, 09:20:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

We had that permanent increase in output in 2003 the last time the Fed cut rates to 1%. It wasn't quite Keynesian -- more classic monetary driven by housing. But still, it was a free lunch, right? I mean, output just stayed right up there, and we never had to give it back, right?

Have you compared the latest GDP report to the one from 5 years ago? It'll be a while before you can say we've had to give it back.

Actually, I'd say the experience since 2003 makes my case stronger. Easy money causes inflation?

Year after year since then we've been asking, "Where's the inflation?" and the response was, "Just wait 'til next year. Oil prices are going up. In a few months that will filter through into the general price level, and we'll have good old-fashioned inflation. Just wait." Well, it's been 5 years, and I notice that oil prices are not going up any more and neither are the others.

I think the bloating of the mortgage market after the previous easing also supports my case. The Fed didn't need to put the pedal quite to the floor, and no large fiscal stimulus was required, because the haywire mortgage market magnified the stimulus that the Fed did provide. If the mortgage market had been sane and well-regulated, the monetary stimulus would have had to be supplemented with a monetized fiscal stimulus in order to produce a recovery. I guess we can disagree about how that thought experiment turns out, but I expect we would have had a solider and more durable recovery if it had been based on public monetization of government debt rather than private monetization of housing. (The mortgage boom effectively made "I want to buy a house" a form of currency, and low-interest credit lines also made home equity a form of currency.)

You are truly a believer in American exceptionalism.

I'm not arguing that the US in particular is an exception. Any currency in which people have confidence is an exception. Contemporary Japan has been an exception (and pretty clear evidence that the experiences of Argentina et. al. are not universal). The Euro zone, if it comes to that, will be an exception.

The general idea is that, if people are very eager to hold money rather than to spend it, then you can create quite a lot of money before they become satiated and start to behave in a way that causes inflation. Of course, if people don't have confidence in your currency to begin with, then people aren't very eager to hold money in the first place, and there are rather tight limits on how much you can create without causing inflation. Obviously people have confidence in the dollar right now, because the market clearly overvalues it relative to the exchange rate that would balance trade. But in most of the examples you give, that wasn't the case.

The others are generally countries that were monetizing with an already strong economy (or continued monetizing after the economy started to recover and approach capacity constraints). In that situation, demand pressure causes prices to rise, and even if people had confidence in the currency to begin with, they start to lose that confidence. Contrast those experiences with Japan's recent experience monetizing in a slump, and tell me which is more like the US today.



Anonymous,

Maybe I missed something in the Krugman piece (or maybe, likely, he did make your point in a different article), but it sounds to me like you are reading a lot into what he said, at least in the particular entry that I linked. From what I (perhaps wrongly) remember, he seems merely to be making an economic argument about aggregate demand rather than a political argument about what the Obama administration can do. You may be right, though: the decision to do too much or too little might be a one-time choice. I'm sure that, if it's too little, there will be continuing pressure for new stimuli, but under the circumstances those are also likely to be too small (see Japan).

Fri Dec 05, 10:45:00 AM EST  
Blogger I Kahn O'Clast said...

Except that you forget that we had a population boom accompanied by and followed with a productivity boom (based partially on an unprecedented series of technological leaps) that quickly paid off the WW2 debts both through revenue surge and as a share of GDP as the GDP skyrocketed.

The demographic profile we face now implies that we cannot even afford current obligations, let alone new ones.

Fri Dec 05, 12:25:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

...we had a population boom accompanied by and followed with a productivity boom (based partially on an unprecedented series of technological leaps)...

The experience of the last 15 years suggests that productivity booms are not a thing of the past.

We could choose to have a population boom now, indeed a huge one, if we were willing to accept those who want to be part of that hypothetical boom (and devote enough resources to processing them). Granted, it seems likely that, once we arrive in Hell, we will choose the fire and brimstone option instead. But even so, with the world economy expanding rapidly, we can expect our terms of trade to largely compensate for the different demographics. And we can (and will, if standard growth models are to be believed) invest in a larger capital stock to make up for the slowness of labor force growth.

The critical condition is that the overall growth rate be higher than the government's interest rate. I've argued before why that's likely to be true, but I'm too busy to find the entry right now.


The demographic profile we face now implies that we cannot even afford current obligations, let alone new ones.

"Current obligations" are a malleable category, and it will have to be adjusted no matter what. A few trillion is a drop in the bucket compared to the present value of Medicare's unfunded liabilities, if you project into the infinite future using standard projection techniques and discount at today's Treasury yields. It's a foregone conclusion that something will have to be done about entitlements. I doubt that the debt to accumulate over the next couple of years is going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back, especially since that back is already broken.

The main problem with entitlements is not that the demographics have changed but (1) that they promised too much to begin with and (2) that both the cost of medical care and the set of what medical care is considered necessary are constantly expanding. It's a problem we have to solve, and I'm not sure how to do that. But avoiding large deficits over the next few years won't come anywhere near fixing the problem, and accruing those deficits won't make it significantly worse.

Fri Dec 05, 01:50:00 PM EST  
Anonymous David Pearson said...

knzn,

The problem with deflationists is they only believe in one-tail risk -- that is, the risk of hyperinflation. Really, you're not pessimistic enough.

This is a two-tail risk problem. The U.S. could inflate away its debt, or it default on it. The key is velocity. At the moment its zero at the margin. If that continues, the fiscal and monetary stimulus plans will have little impact. It is entire possible that the U.S. will need to wipe out its debts to match its debt-service capacity.

What's the best way to wipe out debts? Well, there's default/restructuring. Thats one option. And there's inflation. That's the other. Which do the deflationists choose? Neither, because they don't believe its possible that we will face the choice in the future. In fact, its highly likely.

Fri Dec 05, 02:26:00 PM EST  
Anonymous David Pearson said...

BTW, I countries that hyperinflate do not do so because of capacity consraints: for the most part, Brazil's steel industry operated at 50% of capacity during its high-inflation years.

Rather, hyperinflation comes about because of two-tailed risk. That is, debt holders come to believe that there is some possibility of default given the TRAJECTORY of deficits. They refuse to further finance the government. The government turns to the Central Bank for financing, and this erodes faith in the currency. It has nothing to do with capacity in the classic "overheating" sense.

Fri Dec 05, 02:36:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The main problem with entitlements is not that the demographics have changed but (1) that they promised too much to begin with and (2) that both the cost of medical care and the set of what medical care is considered necessary are constantly expanding. It's a problem we have to solve, and I'm not sure how to do that. But avoiding large deficits over the next few years won't come anywhere near fixing the problem, and accruing those deficits won't make it significantly worse."
I generally agree. Entitlements are not consistent with the tax structure - there is a structural deficit. If you want to use the public sector to redistribute income, then you need to collect the taxes to do so. As far as health care is concerned, universal public insurance would move resources away from unnecessary plastic surgery and expensive procedures only the rich can afford, to necessary basic services, and eliminate rent-seeking by private insurers, surely a big waste, most likely resulting in better health outcomes on average (the sort of arguments Krugman makes). But taxes would need to be increased - the public sector needs to be increased not just via expenditure increases but via tax increases to finance these expenditures, and more, to compensate for the current structural deficit. But these long run questions are separate from the immediate need for a fiscal stimulus.

Sun Dec 07, 09:20:00 AM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

David:

What's the best way to wipe out debts? Well, there's default/restructuring. Thats one option. And there's inflation. That's the other.

I have a lot of trouble imagining that the US government would ever choose the first option. What advantage could it have? (See below.)


hyperinflation comes about because of two-tailed risk. That is, debt holders come to believe that there is some possibility of default given the TRAJECTORY of deficits. They refuse to further finance the government. The government turns to the Central Bank for financing, and this erodes faith in the currency. It has nothing to do with capacity in the classic "overheating" sense.

Given your example of Brazil, I think you're talking about a very different situation than the US. Most countries that have had these problems have had most of the external debts are denominated in a foreign currency. In that case, inflation is merely a form of taxation, and it differs from other forms of taxation only in that (1) it doesn't require explicitly raising taxes and (2) it's easy to get to the far side of the Laffer curve. Hyperinflation comes about when a country ignores that Laffer curve and tries to finance itself by taxing money balances at too high a rate. If that is the alternative (since it's really no alternative at all), default might be a better option, and it's reasonable for markets to fear default.

In the US case, however, nearly all our debts are denominated in our own currency. To get rid of those debts, we don't need to put a permanent tax on money balances. All we need to do is put a temporary tax on our creditors by creating enough inflation to make the debts no longer burdensome. This option is clearly preferable to default, so there is no reason for anyone to fear default, unless they expect the country to act irrationally.

Sun Dec 07, 01:36:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Sir Max Higgins said...

Bank of America and Mr. Higgins missing $millions, it can happen to you my, fellows Americans


More info at: http://maxhiggins.com/blog/

Mon Dec 29, 04:34:00 PM EST  
Blogger Sean Kelly said...

"Even with the biggest fiscal stimulus anyone can imagine, our debt-to-GDP ratio will still end up lower than it was at the end of World War II."

The debt/GDP ratio after WWII was 122%. I imagine that most of the statistics you read about our current ratio put us just under 100% including all stimulus approved plus the pending $900B (not including Fannie/Freddie). However, one of the most overlooked facts in our country's finances is the omission of the future social security debt in that statistic. Makes sense as its not a current debt, but it will be and it is projected to be in the neighborhood of $40 Trillion a couple of decades from now. While we collect an annual "surplus" in social security taxes and will for some time, it actually goes into the same general tax revenue pot and is spent just the same leaving the fund bankrupt. If those numbers were accurately reflected our debt/GDP (or discounted to today's dollars) our debt/GDP ratio would be FAR ABOVE the post WWII level. I would also argue against the claim "Even with the biggest fiscal stimulus anyone can imagine" as I am of the humble opinion that we will end up injecting several trillions. The first 700 disappeared. This next 900 will help, and I see at least 5 comparative "plans" in total. This deflationary spiral rivals the one experienced in the great depression. We are lucky to be reacting the right way this time around.

Thu Feb 05, 09:28:00 PM EST  
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