Saturday, September 20, 2008

Why Short Selling Matters

Arnold Kling (hat tip: Matthew Yglesias) argues that short-selling can’t “destroy a good company” because if the company is good, someone will always be willing to pay a good price for it and will be willing to buy it from the short-seller at that good price. But his analysis fails to account for uncertainty and imperfect information. We don’t really know which companies are “good.” Everyone has their own guess about how much a company is worth, but how much is it really worth? We won’t know until we see its results. Actually, we won’t even know then, because it will have more results in the future that we still won’t know about.

In general, since the market value of a company depends on an uncertain guess as to its true value, a good company can be destroyed simply by bad opinions, if people wrongly judge that it is a bad company. And, as I will explain, short-selling can exacerbate this problem in the case of a company that is in fact good but that, in terms of market opinions, is on the margin between being considered good and being considered bad. The “margin” idea applies when there is only one “marginal” short seller, but if there are many, they will effectively widen the margin, so that a clearly “good” company can turn into a clearly “bad” one.

For any given company, the market does not have one opinion, shared by everyone, about the value of its stock. Rather, everyone has a different opinion. People use different methods (including subjective ones, which differ from any one individual to another) to evaluate a stock. Those different methods lead to different conclusions about the stock’s value. One person may think a stock is worth $10; another may think it’s worth $9.99; another may think it’s worth $9.98; and so on down, and maybe, at the other extreme, there is someone who thinks it’s only worth $2.

So suppose the stock is trading at $10, and a large short-seller appears on the scene. The short-seller will satisfy the demand of the person who thinks the stock is worth $10, and then there will be no more demand at $10, and the stock will trade down to $9.99. Then the short-seller (who is, by my construction, “large”) will satisfy the demand of the person who thinks the stock is worth $9.99. Then the stock will trade down to $9.98, and the short-seller will satisfy the demand of the person who thinks it’s worth $9.98, and it will trade down to $9.97. And so on. If there are a lot of large short-sellers, they can bring the price down by quite a lot by, for example, satisfying the demand of everyone who thinks the stock is worth more than $7.

So let’s take that $10/$7 example, and let’s suppose that the definition of “good” requires the stock to be worth $8 or more (in a sense that will become more precise in later paragraphs). By sending the price down from $10 to $7, the short-sellers have effectively shifted the company’s “market reputation” from the “good” category into the “bad” category. No individual has actually changed their opinion, but because of the aggressiveness of the short-sellers (who obviously believe the company is quite a “bad” one), the “market” has changed its “collective opinion.”

Now let’s suppose that the company is (in actual fact rather than opinion) a “good” company but that it needs to raise more equity capital in order to stay good. (When you’re talking about a bank that is solvent but undercapitalized, this might be a reasonable description.) When it offers new shares, the company faces the same demand curve as the short-seller did, and since the price is now down to $7, the company will have to offer the shares at a lower price, say $6, for the offering to be fully subscribed, because it will satisfy the demand of everyone who believes the company is worth $7, $6.99, $6.98, and so on, down to $6.

OK, but suppose that the amount of capital raised at a $6 share price will not be enough to keep the company good. And let’s also suppose that it would have been enough if the offering price had been $9, which it would have been (approximately) if the short-sellers had not become involved. So the company still doesn’t have enough capital, and it needs to raise more. So it offers more shares. But again, the company faces a downward-sloping demand curve for its shares. Suppose it offers additional shares, which satisfy the demand of everyone who thinks they are worth more than $5, so the company offers these new shares at $5. But suppose that still is not enough to keep the company good. It has to offer more shares. But now that it has done two separate offerings, and it attempts a third, it probably won’t have the confidence of the market. Market participants will say, “If we pay $4 now, who is to say that the company won’t come back and offer shares at $3? We’ll wait for that.” And if they wait for $3, why not wait for $2? And if $2, why not $1? Of course at some point everyone is going to realize that the company is going to be unable to raise sufficient capital at any price.

In practice, potential buyers will have realized that much earlier. If they have a reasonable guess as to how much capital the company needs, and a reasonable guess as to what the demand curve for its stock looks like, then they will be able to come up with a reasonable guess as to whether the company can raise the necessary capital. Of course, there will be a variety of guesses, and opinions will differ. But at some point (as the declining stock value makes the problem clearer), only a few people (or none at all) will be of the opinion that the company can raise enough capital. At that point, the company is effectively ruined, the price goes down to near zero, and the short-sellers profit handsomely. If there are enough large short-sellers, not only can they destroy a good company, they can make a lot of money doing it.


UPDATE: Another way to argue that short-selling doesn't matter would be to argue that the person with the $10 opinion has an infinite amount of capital available, and therefore they will demand an unlimited number of shares at $10. Of course, it's rather silly to think that anyone has infinite capital. And for someone with limited capital, the more they pay for the shares, the more risk they are taking. So they will be willing to buy a certain number of shares at $10, but after that, the risk become too high, and the price has to go down to get them to buy more. Essentially, my argument above still applies, except that you can construct the demand curve from just one person's opinion. If there are many potential buyers, each of whom has limited capital and limited risk tolerance, but who have different opinions, the demand curve will still slope downward, and again my argument applies.

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120 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your analysis is convincing knzn. Short-selling looks like a dangerous and even unethical practice to me.

Sat Sep 20, 09:07:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Jim Glass said...

"a good company can be destroyed simply by bad opinions, if people wrongly judge that it is a bad company"

Well, not so simply. If I have a "good company" operating profitably that can pay all its bills, a stock price for it that is low (well, lower than I believe justified!) is in no way going to "destroy" it. How does a mere low stock price keep it from being able to pay its bills?

"Undervalued" businesses can operate profitably indefinitely, and do all the time. Private businesses of course have no ready market value at all.

There has to be a complication....

let’s suppose that the company is (in actual fact rather than opinion) a “good” company but that it needs to raise more equity capital in order to stay good.

OK, so the complication is "a good company in actual fact is undercapitalized".

Yet it is rather difficult to describe a good company in actual fact as undercapitalized -- being undercapitalized is pretty much a clear indication of being "not good".

Especially when talking about a financial services firm whose very job is risk management. Sort of like saying "a good insurance firm that doesn't have the money to pay the claims against it on the coverage it has written". In fact, exactly like saying that.

Now, it is easy to imagine a case where an insurance firm unexepectly discovers that it faces claims that it can't cover with its resources at hand -- as AIG discovered it owed $20 billion in overlooked claims in one day(!), last Sunday -- and to imagine that if the equity and financial markets are happy and unchallenged at the time, it could go into them to raise the capital needed to cover the claims. But in that case it is merely lucky. Not good.

Because the very essence of a good insurance firm, its job, is to be sufficiently capitalized to pay all claims in disaster situations, when all markets are plunging, whatever the reason (9/11, hurricanes, plague, financial collapse, or whatever) -- it's insurance after all.

So if an insurance firm is undercapitalized in the face of claims it is not a good company, it is a bad one. It screwed up. And the idea that on a nice, happy, lucky day -- with no shorts around -- it might have been able to belatedly cover its capital deficiency does not make it a good company.

Remember, shorting is a high-risk, temporary strategy -- as all short positions must be covered by buying an offsetting number shares in a finite period of time, increasing the demand for the shares and their price, which can cause the shorts no-limit losses.

Thus, shorting cannot hold a "good" firm's stock price down indefinitely, but only cause volatility in the price. Here's a paper on this [.pdf]

All of which makes it really hard to see how a truly "good" adequately capitalized firm that can pay its bills can be destroyed by shorts.

As a footnote, the WSJ reports that only 3% of the stock of Goldman and Morgan was short as of the 16th, so short selling really does not seem have been the true cause of their problems in any event.

Sun Sep 21, 12:35:00 AM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

"Yet it is rather difficult to describe a good company in actual fact as undercapitalized"

So use the term "overleveraged" instead of "undercapitalized." A company that is "good" from an operations point of view can find itself in a position where it has a substantial risk of not being able to support those operations if it is hit by an adverse shock. That does suggest some misjudgment on the part of its managers, but it can also the result of an extreme realization in the probability space of possible outcomes. The managers should manage risks, but they cannot eliminate risks. In any case, to say that the company is good is not to say that its managers are good. If the managers aren't doing a good job, the stockholders can replace them. If, in its current state, the company's operations are still expected (in the probabilistic sense) to be profitable relative to the usual cost of capital, then the company is "good" in the sense that, if allowed to continue operating, it will produce value.

"Thus, shorting cannot hold a "good" firm's stock price down indefinitely, but only cause volatility in the price."

Subject to our semantic issues about the definition of "good," my point is that downward volatility can destroy a good company if the frequency of that volatility is sufficiently low. In principle, you can have something that's just fluctuating, being volatile, but then it happens to fluctuate down to a point from which it cannot recover, and then what was a fluctuation becomes a permanent condition.

You can make a similar argument about currency traders. If they take a short position in a certain currency, they have to cover that position eventually, so they can only produce volatility. But a if a government is trying to maintain a peg, even one that it would have been able to maintain in the absence of speculators, it may at some point find itself subject to speculative attack and have to abandon the peg.

Sun Sep 21, 01:24:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Peter said...

knzn I wish you'd make a distinction between naked shorting vs. regular actually-borrowed shorting. The latter is needed to counteract the margin-buying upward-pressure on the stock price. If there are shorts looking to make money by depressing even 'good' companies, there are also short-busters who want to squeeze those shorts on the 'good' companies. And 'good' companies are those who *do* have the cash to squeeze the shorts themselves. Warren Buffet invites anybody to short Berkshire stock, for example.

In contrast, naked shorting is basically transforming the market for the stock from a market for the underlying into a market for the derivative.

Sun Sep 21, 09:19:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Bruce Wilder said...

I'm not much impressed by your analysis of short-selling.

The size of the short-seller should not matter; it is the subject company that limits the supply of its own stock; the short-seller has no control of this -- the short-seller can be as big as all outdoors, but he cannot create his own supply of subject company stock.

The short-seller is not just betting his own opinion -- he is betting that others will come to share his opinion in the future: information will be revealed to others, which will lead the others to change their minds. And, he is putting his opinion at risk by committing himself to a future transaction in the company stock.

Only if the total supply of the company stock is large relative to the demand of those with a firmly positive opinion, would the short-seller crowd be able to prevail.

Without short-sellers in the market, the efficiency of market-price in reflecting consensus expectations is compromised.

Imagine that innovation has opened up the prospect of a terrifically profitable franchise in selling red widgets. Three different companies are competing to capture this franchise -- economies of scale are such that only one company will be producing red widgets in five years and everyone knows this. What no one agrees on, is which fledgling widget maker will capture that market. The prospective cash-flow for the winner, which is known with a high degree of certainty, implies that this widget franchise has an expected present value $100. What is the total market cap of the three contenders?

Sun Sep 21, 11:56:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Jim Glass said...

An important thing to remember about short sellers is that they buy as many shares of a company's stock as they sell, so their sell- then-buy activity by itself has no effect on the price of a company's shares in the end. This gives necessary perspective.

Imagine a "long raid" on a company's stock in which investors buy it while being legally obligated to sell all they buy in. say, 90 days. Their position in the stock on day 91 will be zero.

Would people believe such temporarily investing "long raiders" could push the price of a dodgy company's stock up to new highs to "make it", and set up the company owners as rich?

Probably not. The "long raiding" buy-and-sellers, having zero effect on the stock as of day 91, create no reason for the stock price to change at all -- except for short-term liquidity issues that could move the stock price up temporarily but will be completely unwound by day 91. So they may create some short term volatility in price, but have zero effect on the stock price by themselves in the end.

And they aren't going to make any broken company whole. If the company has a broken balance sheet, the credit markets aren't going to say, "Well, as a result of some volatility in your stock price due to temporary buying that we know is going to be unwound in short order, sure, we'll give you better credit terms than we ever would have before! Your company is now 'made'!"

The same things are true with sell-and-buyers. Their sell position is temporary, has a cost, risky, and legally required to be 100% unwound in the nearish term with offsetting stock purchases -- buying as many shares as were sold. It can't move a stock's price permanently any more than buying shares then selling all the same shares would (in fact, buying while being legally obligated to soon sell the same shares, with everyone knowing it).

Short sellers hope to profit by having the "longs" follow them in lowering the stock's price during the time they hold the short position. That's all.

Short selling also increases market efficiency when it draws the attention of the "longs" to facts about a company that otherwise would go overlooked. Of course, shorts want the longs to follow them so they actively work on this -- e.g, David Einhorn and his Greenlight Capital shorting Lehman and then having a PR tour detailing why by explaining everything that was wrong with Lehman's books. Lehman's problem was that it didn't have an answer -- and the longs saw that and sold.

But bringing critical attention to a company's financials is not bad, it's good. A sound business can answer that.

And that's all shorts can do -- since they can't move the price of company by themselves in the end, after they cover, and everyone in the markets knows it.

That being the case, I don't see why anyone would fear that sell-and-buyers by themselves can destroy a sound business with a sold balance sheet, in short order, during the limited time they can hold their sell position, any more than one would believe that "long raiding" buy-and-sellers by themselves can save a shaky business with a broken balance sheet and make it sound in similarly short order.

Sun Sep 21, 12:34:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

can anyone name an example of a "good" company that has collapsed due to short sellers recently?

No, they were all garbage companies that were deeply insolvent long before they collapsed.

Sun Sep 21, 12:52:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Glass, good job. I was astounded that naked shorting was not legal. Something that happened during "free market" Bush's presidency? The right proudly wears a libertarian cloak until it makes them uncomfortable. Then their true authoritarian nature comes out. Its like oil and water, libertarianism and authoritarianism.

I always admired shorters, a gamble with huge losses and big gains. It takes chutzpah to play that game. It is a fair game, if the shorters are not so big that they can afford to corner the market. Then what decides the outcome is not the market's valuation - but the size of the shorter's pocket.

Naturally, prohibitions against short sales only apply to little guys. Big guys can short a company by shorting an index, like the S&P 500. Then buy stock of all the guys not to be shorted. Presto, they have skirted the "no short rule" Its good to be rich.

Sun Sep 21, 12:55:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

I was making the argument in the abstract. It is of course impossible to come up with a concrete example, because we won't agree on which companies were good and on what role short-selling had in their collapse. I can well imagine that there have been recent cases in which short-selling might have been the straw that broke the camel's back.

Sun Sep 21, 12:58:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Knzn, In your example the company suffers because when there is an initial fall due the selling, that is to say before the shorters start buying to cover their shorts , long investors are then triggered to sell of their positions in what you say is otherwise a good company. However, it seems hard to believe that a good company could have long investors with sell off trigger price so close to the current price. The high elasticity of the share price as implied by such a substantial fall in price initiated by just a few short sellers is also an indication that this is not a good company. If it was there would be plenty of investors that would buy up shares as soon as it fell just a little bit below its current price. The absence of these willing investors is very telling.

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