Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Unanimous

The Fed didn't quite give me the 175 basis point cut that I was calling for, but depending on how you look at things, it kind of almost did. You can divide the conceivable Fed actions into those that I thought might actually happen and those that were merely my fantasies. If you had asked me before the meeting about the possibility of a unanimous vote for a 50 basis points cut, I would have assigned it to the latter category. So at least things came out on the right side of the reality/fantasy divide.

The disappointing part, though, is that, now that the meeting is over, I won't get a chance to do a post on why the cut should be 200 basis points.

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4 Comments:

Blogger Karl Smith said...

I have been consistently more hawkish than the FOMC and I wanted a 50 bps cut, so I don't think that was fantasy and I don't think 25 more in Oct is fantasy either.

At this point I can easily see and in fact predict the scenario under which 4.25 becomes my preferred target.

Of course NFPs could surprise to the positive and credit condition could moderate considerably but right now I don't expect that.

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