Productivity Slowdown?
Today’s US productivity data were rather unpleasant (see Mark Thoma’s post and the links therefrom), but I’m far from ready to throw in the towel on this one. By my reckoning, the slowing of productivity growth still falls in the category of cyclical variation, and the long-term trend of productivity growth remains at least as high as it was during the late 1990s.
With the latest data, I’ll repeat the analysis from the last time I posted on this topic. (Click on the “productivity” label link at the bottom of this post.) The premise is that productivity goes in cycles, related to, but not necessarily coincident with, the business cycle. (For example, the 1990s business cycle contained two distinct productivity cycles.) I’m measuring cycles from peak to peak, and I’m making the conservative assumption that we have not yet reached the peak of the current cycle. (Obviously we are long past the peak.) Here are the average annual growth rates of business sector productivity:
An alternative, less conservative, approach, is to measure from trough to trough, with the assumption that we are currently at a trough:
Taken together, these results suggest that the current trend is approximately the same as it was in the previous cycle.
With the latest data, I’ll repeat the analysis from the last time I posted on this topic. (Click on the “productivity” label link at the bottom of this post.) The premise is that productivity goes in cycles, related to, but not necessarily coincident with, the business cycle. (For example, the 1990s business cycle contained two distinct productivity cycles.) I’m measuring cycles from peak to peak, and I’m making the conservative assumption that we have not yet reached the peak of the current cycle. (Obviously we are long past the peak.) Here are the average annual growth rates of business sector productivity:
1.4% 1986q1 to 1990q2
1.6% 1990q2 to 1994q4
2.5% 1994q4 to 2000q2
2.6% 2000q2 to 2006q4
An alternative, less conservative, approach, is to measure from trough to trough, with the assumption that we are currently at a trough:
1.4% 1987q1 to 1991q1
1.6% 1991q1 to 1995q3
2.6% 1995q3 to 2001q1
2.8% 2001q1 to 2006q4
Taken together, these results suggest that the current trend is approximately the same as it was in the previous cycle.
Labels: data, economics, macroeconomics, productivity, US economic outlook


5 Comments:
希望大家都會非常非常幸福~
「朵朵小語‧優美的眷戀在這個世界上,最重要的一件事,就是好好愛自己。好好愛自己,你的眼睛才能看見天空的美麗,耳朵才能聽見山水的清音。好好愛自己,你才能體會所有美好的東西,所有的文字與音符才能像清泉一樣注入你的心靈。好好愛自己,你才有愛人的能力,也才有讓別人愛上你的魅力。而愛自己的第一步,就是切斷讓自己覺得黏膩的過去,以無沾無滯的輕快心情,大步走向前去。愛自己的第二步,則是隨時保持孩子般的好奇,願意接受未知的指引;也隨時可以拋卻不再需要的行囊,一路雲淡風輕。親愛的,你是天地之間獨一無二的旅人,在陽光與月光的交替之中瀟灑獨行.............................................................................................................
有時,你覺得痛。胃痛的時候,接受它,承認這個疼痛是你的身體的一部份,與它和平共處。心痛的時候,接受它,承認這個經驗是你的生命的一部份,與它和平共處。抗拒痛的存在,只會讓它更要證明它的存在,於是你就更痛。所以,.無論你有多麼不喜歡痛的感覺,還是要接納這個痛的事實。與你的痛站在同一邊,不逃避,不閃躲,不再與你的痛爭執,如此,你的痛才會漸漸不再胡鬧,才會乖乖平息下去。.................
酒店喝酒,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店領檯,便服店,鋼琴酒吧,酒店兼職,酒店兼差,酒店打工,伴唱小姐,暑假打工,酒店上班,酒店兼職,ktv酒店,酒店,酒店公關,酒店兼差,酒店上班,酒店打工,禮服酒店,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店經紀,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,酒店傳播,酒店經紀人,酒店,酒店,酒店,酒店 ,禮服店 , 酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,招待所,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店上班,暑假打工,酒店公關,酒店兼職,禮服店 , 酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店,酒店,酒店經紀,酒店領檯 ,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,酒店經紀
Bought the Tennis Racquet is important, exercise can reduce the harm, especially for the wrist injury. But the good of Tennis Racket in general in the real prices are more expensive, so a lot of websites now have cheap tennis racquet,tennis racquet discount,cheap tennis racket,discount Tennis Racket .
Some new style Puma Speed is in fashion this year. chaussure puma is Puma Shoes in french. Many france like seach “chaussure sport” by the internet when they need buy the Puma shoes or buy the nike max shoes.The information age is really convenient. By the way ,the puma CAT is really good chaussures puma ,don’t forget buy the puma mens shoes and nike air max ltd by the internet when you need them . Do you know Nike Air Shoes is a best Air Shoes .
Spring is coming, and how to choose the polo shirts is the main concern of many people. ralph lauren polo shirts is a classic type and reliable. ed hardy clothing is more in line with the aesthetic ideas of young people, so many young people filled with a variety of ed hardy clothes in their wardrobes. New style ed hardy womens shirt match the new style ed hardy sunglasses , it is a good idea.
Do you think this season is not for ugg boots ? maybe yes .but this season is best time that can buy the cheap ugg boots. Many sellers are selling discounted. Do not miss . Please view my blog and fc2 blog .thank you .
cheap wow gold buy wow power leveling my wow gold cheapest wow power leveling
replica replica rolex
CHEAP wow power level
BUY power leveling
replica rolex replica
cheap lotro gold
replica rolex
CHEAPEST power leveling
cheap rs gold l
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home