Monday, November 10, 2008

GM is not Lehman

I’m generally in favor of bailing out the US auto industry, mostly because such a bailout would be a relatively inexpensive form of fiscal stimulus. Compare the cost of bailing out the auto industry to the cost of trying to replace the lost jobs by means of government hiring. (There will be multiplier effects on both sides of the equation, which should roughly balance out.) Bailing out the auto makers, by just lending to them at below-market interest rates, is clearly cheaper. In fact, the interest rates should still represent a positive, or at least neutral, spread to Treasury rates, so there need not be any cost at all to the bailout unless the bailees eventually do default.

However, comparisons between GM and Lehman Bros. are overblown. The lost jobs at GM could be replaced by means of a fiscal stimulus, albeit an expensive one; the financial impact of the Lehman bankruptcy cannot be undone, though the government is doing its best to mitigate that impact.

An industrial company is simply not the same as a financial company. Yes, the auto companies do have creditors, and those creditors will lose out if the auto companies go bankrupt, and this may have significant adverse indirect effects. And yes, such bankruptcies will somewhat reduce confidence in US industrial companies in general and make it a bit harder (though probably not a lot harder) for them to obtain financing.

But a financial company doesn’t just have creditors, it’s in the business of having creditors. The indirect impact of a major failure – by forcing creditors, and creditors of creditors, and so on, to deleverage themselves – is huge. And a loss of confidence in financial companies doesn’t just make it harder for them to find financing; it instigates a chain reaction of additional deleveraging on a grand scale. And as we have seen, this can make it impossible for many companies (and households) to find financing at all, and such tightening of credit can result in many more job losses than the collapse of a few large industrial companies.

So, yes, I do support an auto industry bailout. But let’s not allow the auto companies to bamboozle us by claiming that their failure would be as disastrous as the Lehman failure. The public should not consider itself to be in a terribly bad negotiating position with respect to the auto industry. Bail them out, but bail them out on our terms, not theirs.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember when Circuit City was a favorite in "Good to Great" by Jim Collins? Remember when we thought being big like GM gave you clout with customers and vendors to produce long-term returns (Michael Porter's 5 Forces Model)? It's time we recognize that the old approach to management doesn't work in a rapidly shifting competitive world. There are winners in today's market, but they follow a different approach. Read more at

Mon Nov 10, 04:18:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that they should give/lend the automobile industry funds to retool and make fuel efficient cars and electric cars. Isn't that Obama's idea? I like it!
But how much more of a deficit can we go into? According to an IMF report, the US needs an improvement in its (government budget) primary balance of 7 percent of GDP in order to be fiscally sustainable. My back of the envelope calculations say that this is equivalent to an increase in taxes and/or other government revenues of 20% with no change in expenditures, or a significant decrease in expenditures. How can this be done, while at the same time stimulating the economy?
I wouldn't want to be in Obama's shoes right now, although I'm very pleased that he got elected. The politics and economics of this total mess are rather scary.

Mon Nov 10, 09:52:00 PM EST  
Blogger knzn said...

I don't think the concept of fiscal sustainability applies during a potentially deflationary recession. The deficits that the US ran during the 30s and 40s were certainly not sustainable by the standards the IMF would apply today, and yet the subsequent decades were among the most prosperous in US history, and the debt-to-GDP ratio fell to a normal level.

If the economy has slack resources, we can spend a virtually infinite amount (as we did on World War II), and it has no real resource cost. The cost exists only in financial statements. And that cost is largely an illusion: the Chinese authorities are willing to accept tiny returns on their dollar assets, while future US taxpayers will be earning much higher returns and won't have much trouble paying out if it ever comes to that.

And when the Treasury bill interest rate is at zero (as it roughly is now, and will almost certainly be precisely in the future), the Fed has essentially unlimited ability to monetize the fiscal deficit, since any amount of money it creates cannot lower the interest rate further. In that case, there is not even a financial cost to the deficit; you just print money to cover it, and it doesn't cause inflation because nobody spends it. (If it did cause inflation, that would be a sign that the recession was over, and you could withdraw the fiscal stimulus.)

Mon Nov 10, 11:45:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

knzn, from a policy standpoint you may favor bailing out GM/F/Chrysler, which part(s) of the capital structure are hurt? You claim it would be a relatively cheap form of fiscal stimulus.

But the bailouts' winners and losers morph within the capital strcture with each new rescue. Consider:

Bear: senior debtholders, trading counterparties, preferred holders, bailed out. Common destroyed.

FNM and FRE: senior and sub debtholders bailed out, preferred and common destroyed.

WM: depositors and FDIC bailed out; sr, sub, pfd and common destroyed.

I could continue with BAC/CFC, BAC/MER, WB/WFC, or even Buffett/GS.

My point is that an Obama GM bailout could be as harsh for markets as a guarantee of UAW employees' pensions, a "golden share" of control in exchange for debtor-in-possession financing, and zero for GM and GMAC creditors, senior on down. What would GMAC bondholders, to name a group, do in that case? A lawsuit against the government?

Thoughts are springing forth.... Could the government take a >79.9% stake and consolidate, since the assets are less than liabilities? Hhmm..

I'm still thinking the UAW guarantee is the cleverest, as the contract is with the union, not GM, so GM can be allowed to fail without major political repercussions. Suppliers who fail can be bailed out with a TARP v2, or with lavish "job re-training programs."

Tue Nov 11, 02:31:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks knzn for the macroeconomics insights. You've convinced me. As for the auto companies, I do think they need to be helped in retooling, but the gov't can't get itself in a situation where it has to permanently support them, particularly if people are going to drive fewer cars.
I support a big infrastructure stimulus as the infrastructure is crumpling. In particular, this is time to invest in public transit. Some of the auto workers could be retrained to move from making autos to working in public works and public transit. Particularly the younger ones, and they will the first to be laid off.
The government could also consider buying up some of that cheap and unused housing for public housing.

Tue Nov 11, 08:27:00 AM EST  
Blogger Denis Drew said...

If the $25 billion auto bailout loan goes to retooling to build almost fuel-free cars like the Volt, the savings on foreign oil purchases alone could pay back many multiples of the principle -- ever year! -- leaving T. Boone Pickens' program for freedom from foreign oil dependence in GM's dust.

Free upgrade to plug-in hybrid?

Reported by Tom Krishner, AP Auto Writer Monday, July 21, 2008: ..."lithium-ion battery packs needed to power even a small car now cost in excess of $10,000..."

A couple of years ago, I came up with the fun dollar-savings equation that: if America needed only half as much imported oil (meaning 5 million bbl/day then) and if we needed to pay only half the price ($30/bbl then) due to said lowered demand, then, we could save $165 billion a year (by spending only 5,000,000 bbl/day X 365 days X $30 instead of 10,000,000 bbl/day X 365 days X $60 = a saving of $164,250,000,000/year)...

...or, exactly enough to subsidize buidling the 16.5 million cars and trucks we manufacture every year as LITHIUM, PLUG-IN hybrids -- at $10,000 per vehicle!

Now, with oil recently approaching the $150/bbl range, we could be shipping $500 billion more a year overseas; potentially justifying any form of subisidy for the manufacture of lithium plug-in hybrids.

For 30 years it has been known that building lithium ion batteries with silicon wires (instead of carbon wires) could yield ten times the power holding ability but, because silicon wires expanded and contracted too much as they cycled, they quickly destroyed themselves. The development of silicon nano wires – about a thousandth of the width of a sheet of paper -- has solved that drawback -- while potentially making lithium ion batteries more stable (safer) at the same time!

Near term, only the anode side of the batteries will be manufactured with nano wires, yielding the quadruple jump (up powering GM’s Volt to go 160 miles on one charge instead of 40?). Long term, manufacturing the cathode side with silicon nano wires is expected to reach the ten multiple target (introducing hybrid, long distant trucks?).

Tue Nov 11, 09:08:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bailing out GM has nothing to do with jobs. Let me say that again, bailing out GM will not save jobs. GM has to stop the bleeding whether it gets gov't money or not, the only way to do that is to shrink to fit its market. If GM goes bankrupt it will have to shrink to fit, if it gets a bail-out it will have to shrink to fit. A gov't bail-out is only bailing out shareholders and creditors, not workers. Knzn, you should know better.

Tue Nov 11, 09:12:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,廣告,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,燒肉,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照,MBA,EMBA,留學,MBA,EMBA,留學,進修,在職進修,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,住宿,民宿,飯店,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA

Sun Mar 08, 11:00:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Thu Apr 02, 11:44:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

酒店喝酒,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店領檯,便服店,鋼琴酒吧,酒店兼職,酒店兼差,酒店打工,伴唱小姐,暑假打工,酒店上班,酒店兼職,ktv酒店,酒店,酒店公關,酒店兼差,酒店上班,酒店打工,禮服酒店,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店經紀,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,台北酒店,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店小姐,禮服店 ,酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店小姐,酒店傳播,酒店經紀人,酒店,酒店,酒店,酒店 ,禮服店 , 酒店小姐,酒店經紀,酒店兼差,暑假打工,招待所,酒店小姐,酒店兼差,寒假打工,酒店上班,暑假打工,酒店公關,酒店兼職,禮服店 , 酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工,酒店,酒店,酒店經紀,酒店領檯 ,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,暑假打工, 酒店上班,酒店經紀

Mon Apr 20, 10:15:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some new style Puma Speed is in fashion this year. chaussure puma is Puma Shoes in french. Many france like seach “chaussure sport” by the internet when they need buy the Puma shoes or buy the nike max shoes.The information age is really convenient. By the way ,the puma CAT is really good chaussures puma ,don’t forget buy the puma mens shoes and nike air max ltd by the internet when you need them . Do you know Nike Air Shoes is a best Air Shoes .

Spring is coming, and how to choose the polo shirts is the main concern of many people. ralph lauren polo shirts is a classic type and reliable. ed hardy clothing is more in line with the aesthetic ideas of young people, so many young people filled with a variety of ed hardy clothes in their wardrobes. New style ed hardy womens shirt match the new style ed hardy sunglasses , it is a good idea.
Do you think this season is not for ugg boots ? maybe yes .but this season is best time that can buy the cheap ugg boots. Many sellers are selling discounted. Do not miss . Please view my blog and fc2 blog .thank you .

Tue May 19, 05:04:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

cheap wow gold buy wow power leveling my wow gold cheapest wow power leveling
replica replica rolex
CHEAP wow power level
BUY power leveling
replica rolex replica
cheap lotro gold
replica rolex
CHEAPEST power leveling
cheap rs gold l

Tue Jun 09, 11:09:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

租辦公室租店面買辦公室店面租賃店面出租店面出售花茶花草茶養生茶招牌led招牌招牌製作美國月子中心保養美國月子中心OBU投審會會計師事務所會計師工商登記公司登記包子肉粽宅配美食四神湯搬家公司訂房訂房網花東旅遊桃園土地桃園房屋仲介桃園房屋桃園房屋網桃園房屋買賣漆彈搬家公司會場設計展場設計會場設計展場設計展覽設計消防設備消防設備機電崴立機電消防公司地板施工超耐磨地板店面出租乳癌全身健康檢查肝癌健康檢查身體檢查飛梭雷射雷射溶脂直航機票自由行三久太陽能三久太陽能太陽能熱水器別墅外觀設計環保袋別墅外觀設計室內裝修電波拉皮hand dryer電波拉皮雷射溶脂肉毒桿菌系統家具台中漆彈場漆彈團體服美國月子中心團體服

Fri Sep 11, 05:17:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


Fri Sep 11, 05:17:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

月子餐食譜找工作統一發票7 8月求職1111求職人力銀行104求職人力銀行104人力銀行統一發票5 6月104人力銀行104求職人力銀行塑膠袋統一發票1 2月塑膠袋批發塑膠袋工廠金價黃金價格統一發票3 4月1111人力銀行1111人力銀行求職黃金價格查詢中古車買賣塑膠袋統一發票3 4月塑膠袋批發中古車中古車買賣台北人力銀行金價查詢sum中古車中古車貸款信用貸款房屋貸款剖腹生產 命理網 姓名學 姓名配對 星座 星座運勢 算命 開運印章 風水 外遇 徵信 徵信社 外遇 徵信 徵信社 外遇 徵信 徵信社 外遇 徵信 徵信社 外遇 徵信 徵信社 外遇 徵信 徵信社 搬家公司 搬家公司 台北搬家公司 新竹搬家公司

Fri Sep 11, 05:17:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wholesale gemstone jewelry
wholesale crystal jewelry
crystal wholesale
rock crystal

crystal jewelry
wholesale jewelry
jewelry wholesale
cheap jewelry

Sun Sep 27, 10:31:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

araç sorgulama
bağkur sorgulama
ssk sorgulama
emekli sandığı
radyo dinle
ehliyet sınav sonuçları
iş ilanları
gazete oku

Mon Jan 18, 10:39:00 AM EST  
Blogger Unknown said...

That Ed hardy clothesyear Ed hardy hoodiesthe B.J.P. Cheap ed hardy hoodies won control Ed hardy t-shirtsof Uttar Pradesh, Cheap ed hardy t shirtsthe state Ed hardy shirtswhere the Ed hardy clothing mosque was Cheap ed hardy clothinglocated. On Dec. 6, 1992, Cheap ed hardy bootsa day Ed hardy jeansthat Ed hardy jackets had been Ed hardy swearteridentified Ed hardy shoesas an Ed hardy mens shoesauspicious Ed hardy long sleeve one to worship Ed hardy beltsat the Ed hardy hatsbirthplace of Ram, Ed hardy beddingthousands Ed hardy cotton of Hindus Ed hardy bootsdescended Ed hardy womens bootson the mosque. Ed hardy christian audigier As the police Christian audigier long sleevesstood by they Christian audigier womens hoodiesoverran the building, Christian audigier clothingreducing it to rubble Christian audigier jeans in hours using nothing more than hammers, picks and their bare hands.

Fri Feb 26, 08:09:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nike TN
Puma Shoes Men
NFL Jerseys
Air Jordan Shoes
NFL Jerseys
MBT Shoes

Thu Mar 18, 01:07:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

Apart from these military fashion tops and ripped and torn jeans are also hip and happening this season.2010 fashion trends for men would be dominated this season by denim. By denim we don't need to just stick to jeans but also sport denim jackets and casual pants as well. wholesale LV handbagsdiscount moncler jacketsmoncler coatsmonclermoncler vestmoncler outletmoncler t-shirtmoncler jacketsmonclernew moncler coatsmoncler vestmoncler outletmoncler polo t-shirtCoach handbags outletCheap Coach handbag 2010Discount Coach hand bagAuthentic Coach handbagNewest Coach handbags outletLouis Vuitton handbagsLV handbags 2010Discount LV handbagsCheap Louis Vuitton Outletnewest Louis Vuitton handbagscheap rain weardiscount rainweardog rain jacketscolorful rain bootsrainboots outletCheap Ture Religion Jeans outletDiesel JeansLevis JeansWholesale Ed Hardy JeansDiscount Dior Jeans outlet Jerseys and sneakers are never out of fashion. It is very urban and very hip hop.ust as leather is in trend for women it is also true for men. Leather jackets are a must in the wardrobe this season.

Fri Apr 16, 09:51:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

It is very stylish and sleek. In the casual attire category tracksuits and tank tops rule for men. The most popular t-shirts this season would be the ones with funny sayings on abercrombie fitch clothingdiscount abercrombie fitch T-shirtsdiscount abercrombie and fitch hoodiesabercrombie fitch outletwholesale abercrombie fitched hardy wholesale
cheap ed hardy wholesalediscount ed hardy wholesale
wholesale ed hardyed hardy outletdiscount abercrombie and fitch outletdiscount abercrombie outletdiscount abercrombie clothingdiscount abercrombie jacketdiscount abercrombie shirtdiscount abercrombie and fitch outletdiscount bercrombie and fitch clothesdiscount abercrombie and fitch hoodiediscount abercrombie and fitch shirtsdiscount abercrombie fitch jacketBesides, the urban trend, vintage clothing will also rule this season. This includes tight jeans and leather jackets and embroidered clothing.This season it seems like we are going to have a handful to choose from because the trend is a nice mix match of clothes from different seasons. So go ahead flaunt your style your own way.

Fri Apr 16, 09:57:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

your article is very good, but do you like the
pink ghd
armani sunglasses
gucci sunglasses outlet
discount abercrombie and fitch clothes
abercrombie fitch outlet
abercrombie & fitch clothing
ed hardy wholesale
cheap ed hardy wholesale
discount ed hardy wholesale
wholesale ed hardy
ed hardy outlet
paul smith shirt
paul smith
paul smith 2010
cheap paul smith
discount paul smith
paul smith shoes
Burberry scarf
Burberry outlet
cheap Burberry handbags
Burberry totes
newest Burberry
Moncler jackets
Moncler coats
Moncler Vest
discount Moncler outlet
moncler polo t shirt
cheap ugg boots
discount ugg boots
ugg boots
classic ugg boots
ugg classic tall boots
AirMax BW
AirMax Huarache
AirMax LTD
AirMax Skyline
AirMax TN

Thu May 13, 01:59:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

how do you think the AirMax Zength
AirMax 09
AirMax 180
AirMax 2003
AirMax 2006
AirMax 2009
AirMax 2010
AirMax 360
AirMax 87
AirMax 90
AirMax 91
AirMax 92
AirMax 93
AirMax 95
coach outlet
coach handbag
coach handbags
coach bag
coach bags
discount Oaklay sunglasses
cheap Ray Ban sunglasses
ugg boots
ugg boots discount
cheap ugg boots
classic ugg boots
ugg classic tall boots

Thu May 13, 02:00:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

spyder jackets
spyder ski wear
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
herve leger
herve leger bandage dress
moncler jackets
moncler coats
moncler vest
moncler outlet
moncler Polo t shirt
ugg boots
polo boots
polo shoes

Thu May 13, 02:02:00 AM EDT  
Blogger janewangleilei said...

You can have a look at it.
jordan shoes
newest jordans
jordan 7
air yeezy
jordan true flight
If you like,you can contact us.
jordan 3
jordan 4
We offer different styles.
jordan 1
jordan 2
jordan 5
jordan ajf shoes
There are cheap shoes to choose
nike footwear
jordan flight 45
Good quality with low price.
air jordan 2010
Air Jordan 2009
Enjoy it!
nike trainers

Thu May 27, 11:33:00 PM EDT  
Blogger 咪摩兔 said...


Thu Oct 07, 09:54:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...
Moncler online
Moncler Jackets
moncler online shop
Moncler Jackets
Boutique en ligne Moncler
veste moncler
doudoune moncler

Sun Oct 17, 10:26:00 AM EDT  
Blogger sara chen said...

As with women’s leggings, these seem to be designed to be layered with other clothing items, which do offer a little bit of modesty. Well, I’m not sure this is a trend that will take on, but if it does it’s certain to winter a whole new set of over-exposure solutions as we’ve seen with the camel toe! Moncler men Jackets , Leggings have been hot for women over the past few seasons, but I didn’t think they might extend to the other gender, at least not outside of sporting events that require down jackes, did you?
Stars are always exposed to dress sexy, but in the winter cold, like the design of Moncler women Jackets to help them wear down the United States and also warm. By the star like Moncler Show, which is a very strong brand.Do you even concern about what they are wearing or using? Do you know that which jacket brand stars love most? The answer is Moncler shop online

Sun Nov 07, 07:50:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ways to attack. He is Ecco Casual Shoes.also the speed of running the court winter boots,like a 7-foot center, he grabbed.

Sun Nov 28, 09:24:00 PM EST  
Blogger weddingdresses said...

I Know Power Balance bracelet is very popular all over the world.
And so many wholesalers buy Power Balanceand silly bandz from us for Christmas' gifts.
Free shipping!

I just have this energy level that I've never had before. The only thing that's changed is I've started wearing my Power Balance and nike running shoes

Fri Dec 03, 04:21:00 AM EST  
Blogger Unknown said...

As the shape ups time draws nigh when the whole business must be achieved, the clock must be consulted, and to each dish due tune allowed for the fire to complete what has been thus prepared. Now the cook must be collected as well as busy, that there may be no oversight of any kind (see art. ■' Cooking"). The vegetables and sauces must, in their preparation, keep pace with the dishes which they are to accompany, so that the order of the dinner may be carefully observed.1561. The dinner hour arrived, the cook commences serving such things as may, without injury, bo covered over, and plare.l for a short time on the hot hearth, or in the hot closet (see " Kitchen Apparatus"). Dut choice or important skechers shape ups dishes she refrains from serving until the order for dinner has been given from the drawing-room. Then all hands are at work. shape ups skechers The cook takes immediate charge of fish, soup, and poultry. The kitchen-maid (in some houses assisted by the under housemaid) dishes vegetables, and pours gravies and «auces iuto tureens. The scullion waits the bidding of the cook. All are thus busy, and yet without con fusion.1502. skechers shoes The serving table (in some kitchens heated with steam) is covered with a clian ninth, and the first coarse is set upon it, and carried thence by the footmen, in regular order, to the butler in the dining-room. The cook's constant aim should be shape ups shoes to serve her dinner neatly, and* above even-thing, to scud it up hot. it '-old. her painstaking in all other respects will avail little. Also, of the second course she Bhould time judi "iotisly the dishing; if deferred too long, an awkward shape ups boots lapse in the dining-room will occur; if loo soon, some tt the light and fancy dishes, such as omelettes aud fundus, may be injured. •1563.

Mon Dec 13, 10:52:00 PM EST  
Blogger weddingdresses said...

power balance is said for optimal peak performance by your body it is important to keep an ionic balance and good flow of energy through pathways at your bodies optimum frequency. Apparently after years of research and development power balance bracelet has developed a method to safely and immediately restore and optimize the energy balance with in your body.
winter boots

Thu Dec 30, 05:14:00 AM EST  
Blogger weddingdresses said...

Welcome to our Coach Outlet Store, 70% Off, Coach Purses, 2011 Coach Outlet Store Online and shopping, coach outlet store are proud to offer you the Best Designer Handbags. Our coach purses lasting quality, exquisite craft. Discount Handbags are perfect for young fashionable girls as well as mature traditional women. We believe this discount Coach Purses is what you want. It must be a wise choice for you to choose these Coach Handbags !

Mon Jan 10, 03:25:00 AM EST  
Blogger 2011bagnews said...

Cheap replica coach purses luggage for travelers. Strains appeared in front of replica Chanel handbags , The dtycxy0mcb hourglass ladylike silhouette is replica Gucci purses nothing new. sale Discount bags and handbags wholesale replica Gucci handbags , Goodbye to democracy and androgynous dressing replica Coach wallets fashion pendulum to the other direction. By ladylike, we mean a sense of decency and refinement mattered.It go back to
replica Coach handbags the time when manners and social skills is not to girly

Mon May 02, 04:34:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Unknown said...

the iconic sneaker was originally introduced on now.
Nike Air Max 2011
Nike Air Max Shoes
Nike Air Max
Nike Air Max Wildwood Supreme
Nike Air Max Turbulence
Nike Air Max Skyline
Nike Air Max Goadome
Nike Air Max Fitsole
Nike Air Max Zenyth
Nike Air Max Boots
Nike Air Max Zoom Kobe
Nike Air Max Tn
Nike Air Max LTD
Nike Air Max Presto
Nike Air Max BW
Nike Air Max 24 7
Nike Air Max 2010
Nike Air Max 2011
Nike Air Max 2009
Nike Air Max 95
Nike Air Max 91
Nike Air Max 87
Nike Air Max 180
Nike Air Max Griffey Max 1
Nike Air Max 90
Nike Air Max 1
Abercrombie and Fitch London
Abercrombie & Fitch Clothes
Vibram Shoes
Cheap Air Max
Nike Air Max Shoes
is available in a vivid array of colors, including, Jiffy Black, Pigeon Grey, Shell White, Dodger Blue, and Beaver Brown.

Wed Jun 01, 10:35:00 PM EDT  
Blogger li said...

The Louboutin Shoes Sale is planned using the ladies. offered the fact that pumps was born, the ladies lifestyle turn into colorful. The christian Louboutin 2011 Pumps
will be the god's masterwork. Who invited the Christian Louboutin Wedges ? Seldom people knew, but I think each and every and every lady will be grateful for him. between the countless pumps,the Christian Louboutin Shoes
could be probably the most exceptional ones. The stylish pattern, the delicate design all mold the ladies perfect leg profile. Flowers inside the spring of 2011 creeping, up from frizzy hair to outfits hold on to footwear, have experienced a brilliant up. on this type of the glamor, spring and summer time flowers now here. Romance is really a woman's mood, exquisite flowers just appropriate of expression within our gestures, the woman, how can we not adore the romantic temperament to make certain which they distributed the flowers do? 2011 flowers bloom will get satisfaction from numerous poses! The Christian Louboutin New Sandalsalso can adds the hright in the ladies, it hold shock toward short lady. especially the red-colored lone in the louboutin heels, beauty and sexy, different ladies are crazy. The red-colored sole, andChristian Louboutin Mensis a very distinctive design, its design reflects its style. You put on it, that means you have its style.the earliest attribute in the Sale Louboutin stroe.

Mon Jun 13, 09:03:00 PM EDT  
Blogger luck said...

Not Only The Appearance, Design, But Also The Inspiring Of The Master,The Nike Shoes Us Are The First Class Sports Shoes. Buy Nike Shoes From Us Which Will Keep The Smell Mesh Go Such As Air Max Griffey 1.Many Female People Also Like Various Sports, And They Are Crazy On Such Good Nike Shoes. Nike Air Max Shoes. With A Major Unit In The Heel Hovercraft That Is Visible From The Side Of The Tongue In Most Models To Avoid Injuries And Longevity! Your Feet, Will Keep Dry And Comfortable.Action For The Cheap Air Max. I Am Happy To Know That You Have Read The Article.Now I Belive That You Will Like The Following Fashion Shoes We Provide For You.Don't Hesitate To Choose The Christian Louboutin Outlet Online As Well As The Christian Louboutin Discount Which Have The Unique And Well-Designed Shoes Favored By The World, Signed With The Christian Louboutin Red Soles Of The Mark, Giving High Heels And Covetable Accessories.Hurry Up!We Will Change You Into A Gorgeous Girl! Most Important,The Product We Provide Are All Fashionable As Well As High Quality Elegant Shoes.No Tax And Fast Delivery As Well As Good Customer Service.Just Do It.Our Blog Provide More Details:

Thu Jul 14, 04:12:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Ugg Classic Boots said...

UGG has set a boot sensation around the globe. People of all ages and profession are becoming intrigued with one of these sheepskin footwear in the land here. In the past, the sheepskin boots were first of all worn by shepherds for defense against the inclient weather.UGG Outlet However, it's thought these flat soled fur-lined boots have managed to get in to the leading edge world of fashion since war aircraft pilots put on due to the fact to have their ft warm in high altitudes along with the viewers make use of the boots to warm-up their ft following a chilly dip in to the sea.Cheap Ugg UK Undeniably, ugg footwear experience again worldwide people' s hidden adoration for casual style and comfort in ultimate.Like a mainstay of fashionable UGG selection, UGG shorts boots are not going anywhere soon.Ugg Classic Boots They're comfortable and in addition, they keep the ft totally dry.Ugg Classic Boots Due to the fact happen to be produced in Australia and therefore are completely constructed of sheepskin. Every UGG devotee will find assorted types of calf shaft height in a number of dimensions and colours.ugg classic boots And 2010 trends are noticed the solely style short sheepskin footwear the following. Check thi out very quickly.UGG Classic Short Boots: This style conveys an easy but classic feel.uggs clearance consists of Genuine Australia sheepskin and made of woll material that may keep your ft dry and warm since it's character, and it is Avoi outsole signed UGG Logo design offers lighweight comfort.Discount Uggs Boots Therefore,The sleek yet sleek appearance is globally outfitted up women of any age around the world. a pleated skirt or other tight pants is going to be extremely popular this uk You may also alter your thing by putting on the cuff up or lower with Classic Short UGG.Ugg Boots Outlet They'd look wonderful with a set of the brand new skinny jeans that are very popular this winter months.Uggs Bailey Button Boots: This is actually a sublime version among fashionable ugg collections.Babyliss Hair Straightener Much like so completely different from classic Uggs due to their attractive side split and distinctive wooden UGG button.Bailey button uggs really are a lovely soft shade which will opt for partically anything inside a woman's wardrobe and therefore are an ideal color for that cold several weeks around. Babyliss Hair Straightener
Ghd Australia

Fri Sep 09, 03:23:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Darin said...

Moncler Outlet Store
Uggs clearance
Uggs on clearance
Uggs sale

Fri Nov 25, 04:07:00 AM EST  
Blogger Unknown said...

Someone who changes your life haoxiod81 just by being part of it.
Cheap New Era Hats
New Era Fitted Hats
Wholesale Cheap Hats
Cheap Hats
Cheap NCAA Hats

Tue Apr 24, 10:56:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Golden Slot Game said...

golden slot

Wed Jun 19, 05:47:00 AM EDT  
Blogger myslot said...

ลองเลยสล็อต xo เกมสล้อตออนไลน์ slotxo ที่ดีที่สุด

Fri Mar 20, 07:41:00 AM EDT  
Blogger lnwslot789 said...

หนังออนไลน์ ระดับ Premium ได้ที่ Doonung1234 ฟรี ระดับ 4K HD หลากหลายเรื่องมากมาย กับเรื่อง Zombieland : Double Tap ซอมบี้แลนด์ แก๊งซ่าส์ล่าล้างซอมบี้ (2019) [ Master iTunes ]

Thu Apr 09, 09:23:00 PM EDT  
Blogger sare said...

เล่นเกมแล้วได้เงิน ได้ง่ายๆ ฟรีเครดิต สล็อตออนไลน์ เล่นสล็อต slotxo ไม่มีโกง คลิกเลยที่นี่

Tue May 19, 02:18:00 AM EDT  
Blogger sare said...

เล่นเกมแล้วได้เงิน ได้ง่ายๆ ฟรีเครดิต สล็อตออนไลน์ เล่นสล็อต เกมสล็อต slot เครดิตฟรี รับเงินจริง คลิกเลยที่นี่

Fri Jul 03, 03:14:00 AM EDT  
Blogger olivia said...

ถ้าคุณเป็นขาพนันคนใหม่บางทีเนื้อหาหรือเกี่ยวกับความรู้ความเข้าใจของเกมพนันนั้นบางครั้งก็อาจจะน้อยอยู่ แต่ว่าพวกเราขอบอกเลยว่าในขณะนี้ ขาพนันคนใหม่สามารถที่จะเรียนผ่านออนไลน์ด้วยตัวเองได้แล้วว่าเกมพนันนั้นมีลักษณะเป็นยังไงบ้าง มีกี่แบบ มีแบบเกมคืออะไรบ้าง หรือมีการพนันเป็นเยี่ยงไร เพราะว่าเกมพนันแต่ละเกมนั้นมีความแตกต่างกัน เพราะการออกแบบที่ต่างกัน แต่ว่าสิ่งที่เช่นกันเป็นจุดประสงค์สำหรับการได้รับเงินที่ใช้ในการเดิมพันจากเกมนั่นเอง เมื่อเป็นแบบนี้ ในตอนนี้ขาพนันขาพนันจะมองเห็นได้ว่าขาพนันจำนวนมากก็ชอบหาแนวทางที่ทำให้ตัวเองนั้นได้กำไรจากเกมพนันสูงที่สุด อย่าง บาคาร่าเองก็เป็นเกมพนันเกมหนึ่งที่เป็นคาสิโนสด รวมทั้งคาสิโนสดเป็นอะไร พวกเราจะขอมาชี้แจงกันถัดไป
เกมบาคาร่า แม้ผู้ที่เคยเล่นรวมทั้งจะต้องทราบว่าเป็นเกมที่มีบรรยากาศรอบๆก็คือ บรรยากาศของบ่อนคาสิโนในที่ที่นั้นจริงๆซึ่งบางบุคคลก็จะเรียกว่าคาสิโนสดนั่นเอง เนื่องจากว่าเป็นการถ่ายทอดสดจากสถานที่นั้นจริงๆแล้วก็ขณะที่ถ่ายทอดสดก็เวลานั้นจริงๆสิ่งเดียวกัน และไม่มีการบันทึกการพนันบาคาร่ามาก่อน เลย ซึ่งขาพนันก็จะรู้ดีว่าเมื่อขาพนันเองชนะเงินที่ใช้ในการเดิมพันขึ้นมายอดเงินที่เข้ามาในบัญชีนั้นก็เข้าจริงในช่วงเวลานั้นๆเลย
ตามที่พวกเราบอกแล้วว่าเกมบาคาร่านั้นเป็นคาสิโนสดที่ถ่ายทอดสดบรรยากาศนั้นจริงๆไม่มีการ make หรือสร้างขึ้นมาเพื่อหลอกลวงขาพนันได้เลย ด้วยเหตุว่าเมื่อขาพนันชนะพนันในแต่ละครั้งนั้นแล้วเงินปริมาณที่ขาพนันชนะพนันจริงๆก็จะเข้าสู่กระเป๋าบัญชีขาพนันเลยในทันที เพราะฉะนั้น ถ้าขาพนันอยากได้ถอนก็เสามารถที่จะถอนได้ตลอดเวลาเลย แล้วก็ขาพนันก็ได้เงินที่ได้จากการเล่นพนันในเกมบาคาร่าจริงๆด้วย ซึ่งชี้ให้เห็นว่าทางเว็บไซต์มีความั่นอาจจะด้านการเงินอย่างยิ่ง
จากที่มองเห็นก็จะรู้ดีว่าเกมบาคาร่าออนไลน์เป็นเกมพนันที่ได้มีการเข้าระบบ sa แล้ว ด้วยเหตุนี้ ขาพนันจะมีความเห็นว่าเว็บพนันออนไลน์โดยมากก็จะมีการเก็บเกมพนันต่างๆไว้ภายในเว็บไซต์พนันเว็บไซต์เดียวเลย รวมทั้งไม่ใช่เพียงแต่เกมบาคาร่าแค่นั้นที่เป็นคาสิโนสด แม้กระนั้นยังมีเกมรูเล็ตและก็เกมไฮโลที่เป็นเกมพนันคาสิโนสดเหมือนกัน

Thu Jul 23, 05:31:00 AM EDT  
Blogger nilila said...


Fri Jul 31, 04:01:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Lottery Blog said...

สุดยอดเว็บแทงหวยออนไลน์ที่ดีที่สุดของประเทศไทย เว็บหวยออนไลน์อันดับ1 ของเมืองไทย ด้วยระบบที่ทันสมัย อยู่ที่ไหนก็เล่นได้

Mon Aug 10, 03:56:00 AM EDT  
Blogger michael obafemi said...

เติมเงินง่าย เล่นได้ทุกเว็บ ต้องนี้เลย slotxo เว็บนี้เว็บเดียวจบ Wow!!

Mon Aug 24, 12:54:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous SLOTXO said...

about info ECONOMICS click slotxo

Mon Sep 07, 05:00:00 AM EDT  
Blogger nntfunny said...

Thanking for sharing Effective article. Please follow my portfolio. click here slotxo

Tue Sep 15, 05:46:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Mr.slot said...

Not sure if I understand correctly. Give it a try >> slotxo

Tue Sep 22, 02:51:00 AM EDT  
Blogger KLJ; said...

Apply for PG SLOT, just make a minimum first deposit of 100 baht, get a 50% instant bonus up to 500 baht.


Thu Sep 24, 03:39:00 AM EDT  
Blogger Aahana said...

Mumbai escorts are the clear choice for an exceptional experience without the hassle! Our escorts give you the obvious advantage. Wet N Wild Mumbai escorts are available for a variety of social occasions when you need an absolute stunner who's GORGEOUS, smart, fit, intelligent and sexy! Wet N Wild Mumbai escorts offer a variety of fine female companions for any occasion when you need for as long as you need! Call Wet N Wild Mumbai escorts when you're ready to book an unforgettable experience with the finest Mumbai Escorts, Mumbai has to offer!
Mumbai escorts
Escort Services IN Mumbai
Mumbai Escorts Service
Mumbai call Girls
Hire Russian Escort Mumbai
Mumbai Escort

Sun Oct 18, 05:43:00 AM EDT  
Blogger nntfunny said...

wow!! I really like very. I hope you can visit and comment on my website ---> pgslot

Mon Nov 02, 03:53:00 AM EST  
Blogger sam1234 said...

ohoh!! I hope you can comment on my website :) pgslot

Mon Nov 09, 03:55:00 AM EST  
Blogger jantaslot said...

เล่นเกมแล้วได้เงิน สล็อตออนไลน์ slotxo เล่นง่ายๆ เล่นสล็อต ฟรีเครดิต slotxo
ได้เงินจริง เล่นเลยที่นี่ คลิกเลย เกมยิงปลา อย่าพลาดมาลุ้นกันเลย slotxo

Thu Feb 18, 02:50:00 AM EST  

Post a Comment

<< Home