Monster Really Scares Me

Just as I finished leaving a comment (not yet accepted as of this writing) on Paul Krugman's blog arguing that UI claims for January remain on balance in the "good news" column and that the personal consumption report is not bad news given what we already knew about retail sales, I learned that the Monster Employment Index (which measures online help wanted advertising) fell by a whopping 9 points (from 169 to 160) in January, after falling an even more whopping (but less surprising given the usual seasonal pattern) 14 points in December and a not so whopping (but still significant because the index has never dropped 3 months in a row before) 5 points in November. That makes a total drop of 28 points, or about 15%, over 3 months. Before December 2007, the index had never fallen by more than 3% over any 3 month period (since it began in October 2003). And note that the 15% drop comes as newspaper help wanted advertising is scraping against an all time low (since 1951, when the Conference Board's index began, but note that in December, it rose slightly from the all-time low in November). Over the past week or two, I had been starting to think that the odds were shifting against recession. Now I'm not so sure. In any case I think we can rule out the possibility that 2008 will turn out unexpectedly to be a year of normal growth. And I'm not so worried about import prices now; I think they'll be offset by a slowing of domestic inflation.


[UPDATE3: OK, now I found the post on Paul Krugman's blog where he said that someone else edits the comments. (I missed it the first time, because it was in an update that I didn't read.) And I notice that one of my comments on an earlier post has suddenly appeared. I guess they decided I was a respectable commenter after all.]

[UPDATE2: I removed the previous update, because Paul Krugman (or whoever approves comments for his blog) did approve my comment. (See link at the top.) I had assumed it wasn't going to be approved, because there were later comments comments already approved, but I guess these things don't necessarily go in order.]

[UPDATE: [removed] ]