Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Aaaargh!!! (Slaughter on China)

Why do economists writing about China pretend not to know the difference between sterilized and non-sterilized intervention? We’ve been through this before, but the latest case in point is Matthew Slaughter, writing in the Wall Street Journal (and cited uncritically by Greg Mankiw and Mark Thoma):
Economic theory and data are very clear here on two critical points. Controlling a nominal exchange rate is a form of sovereign monetary policy. And monetary policy, in turn, has no long-run effect on real economic outcomes such as output and trade flows.

Like all other central banks, the People's Bank of China uses its monopoly power over minting its money to control one nominal price. Since 1994 the PBOC has chosen to closely target the dollar-yuan price. In recent times, maintaining this target has required the PBOC to print yuan to buy dollars and thereby accumulate dollar-denominated assets on its balance sheet.
Under the standard paradigm, a central bank maintains a fixed exchange rate by adjusting interest rates so as to attract enough capital to keep its level of foreign reserves roughly constant. In the very short run, the level of reserves fluctuates, but if the central bank is truly trying “control one nominal price” with “sovereign monetary policy,” the level of reserves should not show a dramatic trend over time. As its level of foreign reserves increases, the central bank should recognize the increased demand for money and satisfy that demand by adding domestic reserves to the banking system. That’s the way “monetary policy” works.

What the People’s Bank of China is doing is something quite different. Even as it maintains its effective dollar peg, it is attempting to cool the economy by raising interest rates. It is not controlling “one nominal price”; rather, it is attempting (with limited success) to control two things at once. It is trying to keep exports strong by keeping the currency weak, and at the same time, it is trying to reduce domestic demand by tightening domestic monetary policy. As a result, it is accumulating a huge, huge, huge quantity of dollar-denominated assets, and this rate of accumulation is clear evidence of a policy conflict.

The conflict might be a bit more obvious if things were going in the other direction. If China were trying to peg the yuan too high rather than too low, while at the same time trying to stimulate, rather than cool, its domestic economy, it would be losing reserves rapidly. The process couldn’t continue, because it would run out of reserves. Then it would be forced either to abandon the peg or to tighten the domestic money supply dramatically. Because the process is now going in the opposite direction, there is no “crisis”, but otherwise what we are seeing is the exact inverse of conditions that would normally have led to a foreign exchange crisis. Of course, when a country does have a foreign exchange crisis, we don’t read economists saying that it is just “sovereign monetary policy” and nothing to worry about. When the process happens in reverse, though, apparently central banks can find plenty of apologists for their unsavory policies.

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even as it maintains its effective dollar peg, it is attempting to cool the economy by raising interest rates.

With millions of laborers still underemployed in rural areas, China's economy is not going to overheat any time soon. China can afford to keep their currency pegged because they have no need to reduce aggregate demand or cool the economy.

Tue May 22, 01:30:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

If they have no need to cool the economy, why are they raising interest rates instead of cutting them? If the economy has plenty of room to expand in the short run, then there is no need to absorb such large quantities of reserves. In that case, they should be cutting interest rates and creating more yuan, to increase private demand for dollars.

Tue May 22, 04:38:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"If China were trying to peg the yuan too high rather than too low, while at the same time trying to stimulate, rather than cool, its domestic economy, it would be losing reserves rapidly."

That sounds like our (USA) policy.

Tue May 22, 05:11:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

According to the WSJ, China has already started implementing a series of export duties that aims at discouraing its export of steel, aluminium and selected other products. In addtion, China has also started requiring exporters to apply for licenses to ship certain steel products.

Steel is by and large one of China's most important exports. It seems that, by taking these measures, China is not only trying to cool down its domestic economy but also reduce its trade surprlus.

How do you reconcile these recent advances with your theory?


Tue May 22, 05:56:00 PM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

The export duties, etc., don't make much sense to me (according to my theory, or any other theory I can think of). If they want more balanced trade, why not just allow the yuan to rise more quickly? Perhaps it is an attempt to diversify their exports, based on concern that certain particular industries are expanding too quickly. Perhaps it is just window dressing ahead of talks with the US.

Tue May 22, 07:24:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Seems you have Brad DeLong and an Angrybear (me) agreeing with you. Better - Brad quotes both the late Milton Friedman and Lord Keynes!


Tue May 22, 08:11:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous China Law Blog said...

Thanks for explaining this so clearly to those of us without econ Phds.

Wed May 23, 03:58:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"If they want more balanced trade, why not just allow the yuan to rise more quickly?"

Back in the late 1990s, many Southeast asian countries were hit hard by financial crisis. To keep their exports strong in time of crisis, countries ranging from Tailand to South Korea drastically devalued their currencies. This beg-thy-neighbor effect seriously eroded the competitiveness of chinese export prices and poisted a serious thread to its trade balance.

According to your logic, the Chinese government should have responded by simply devaluing the yuan. Indeed, many speculators were expecting just that.
As it turned out, the chinese government surprised everyone by sticking to the dollar peg( hence costing some 2 billions dollars to George Soros & company, who had betted heavily against the yuan). By doing so, it opted to endure rapid appraciation of the yuan versus other asian currencies. To alleviate the stress an over-valued yuan caused to the exporters, it provided them with export subsidies.

Fast foward to 2007, the yuan-dollar peg is in exactly the same spot it was back in 1998. This time the chinese are interested in curbing its export as part of its overall strategy to cool down its GDP growth. Once again, they eschewed the direct approach of revaluing the yuan in favor of more draconian measures like export tariffs and permits, which are exactly the opposite of export subsidies.

Significant fluctuation of the value of yuan, be it a appreciation or depreciation, always triggers non-trivial impact on not only the export prices, but also a country's domestic price level. The Chinese government has a vested interest in ensuring price stability, not least because it wants to minimize popular discontent. After all, a stable and prosperous economy is the only source of legitimacy left for the communist party.

China did not depreciate its currency in the height of the asian crisis for the same reason that it won't let the yuan appreciate now--it wants to preserve price stability at all cost.

Obviously in the long run it is in China's best interest to adopt a flexible exchange rate and abolish capital controls so that the market can decide the value of the yuan vis a vis U.S dollar and other currencies. However, as many observers have pointed out, the chinese economy as it stands today simply does not have the microstructure (i.e. financial intermediaries)necessary for the functioning of a truly free financial market. Fortunately this situation is gradually improving now that major american investment banks are taking an increasingly more active rol in chinese financial market.

Contrary to what many american pundits believe, China's decision of keeping its dollar peg is primarily driven by domestic, rather than trade-related considerations.

Wed May 23, 10:44:00 AM EDT  
Blogger knzn said...

I don't believe that the Chinese authorities act with a single motivation. Some of them probably do believe this story about how a more rapidly appreciating currency would risk upsetting expectations of price stability. (That is, it would cause expectations of deflation.) But it's obvious to me that this too-slowly-crawling peg is not the best way to deal with potential deflation expectaions. If it were, it wouldn't require such a high degree of sterilization. In fact, sterilization itself is a policy aimed largely at price stabiblity. Why not let the yuan appreciate as fast as it needs to get the inflation rate to where they want it, instead of fighting for price stability from both directions at once?

Wed May 23, 02:32:00 PM EDT  
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Wed Dec 16, 02:59:00 AM EST  
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Blogger Maria said...

I don't believe that the Chinese authorities act with a single motivation. Some of them probably do believe this story about how a more rapidly appreciating currency would risk upsetting expectations of price stability.

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All countries manipulate there currency and the bigger the power the more they manipulate.

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