Big Drop in Perceived Job Availability
In the Conference Board’s monthly Confidence Survey, they ask respondents if jobs are “plentiful,” “not so plentiful,” or “hard to get.” I keep track of the percentages of respondents (as reported in the press release), particularly for the “plentiful” category. In August, it dropped by 4.2 percentage points, the biggest one-month drop since October 2001. In the past (since 1978, when the survey began to be conducted monthly), such large one-month drops have always been associated with recessions.
I wonder if this has anything to do with the declines in help wanted advertising that I observed here and here. (Do you think?) It is a bit of a puzzle, though, why perceived job availability held up so well until July.
I wonder if this has anything to do with the declines in help wanted advertising that I observed here and here. (Do you think?) It is a bit of a puzzle, though, why perceived job availability held up so well until July.
Labels: data, economics, jobs, macroeconomics, US economic outlook
15 Comments:
Dear knzn:
I wonder whether you are a traditional keynesian economist or a New-Keynesian one. I asked you in a past post if you had read the book "Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions et Policies" by Carlin-Soskice. It is superb. A New-Keynesian testbook for advanced undergraduates with lots of real applications. I thought, given that you believe in ridigities & imperfections, that this book would fit your interests well. I have the pdf-form advanced drafts of the chapters of the book. If you were interested in taking a look at them, just let me know here in the post. I could forward them to a e-mail address that you set up for the occassion.
Your post is one of the best.
Regards
It is a bit of a puzzle, though, why perceived job availability held up so well until July.
What is the timing of the statistic as against other statistics? The real question, is why people have suddenly started looking? Have they just come back from holiday, or just failed to get a raise? Or just heard some rumours?
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